China’s exports to Southeast Asia grew 23.5% in the first nine months of the year, almost double the average of the last four years, driven by the trade war with the United States, according to official data.
Data on imports from the region’s six largest markets – Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia – compiled by the research unit ISI Markets, show that Chinese sales increased from 330 billion to 407 billion dollars (from 283 billion to 349 billion euros) between January and September, compared to the same period in 2024.
Chinese exports to Southeast Asia have doubled in the last five years, with China’s trade surplus vis-à-vis the region reaching a new historic high this year. In 2025, average growth was almost double the 13% compound annual rate recorded between 2020 and 2024.
The intensification of trade with neighboring countries comes in a context of diversion of Chinese exports, penalized by North American tariffs that currently reach around 47%. In contrast, Chinese products face average tariffs of just 19% in Southeast Asia, making the region an attractive alternative for exporters.
According to analysts, this new wave of exports could be linked to US tariff evasion strategies, through the rerouting of products through third countries – a practice known as triangular trade, in which products are exported almost completed from China to other countries, where a component or finish is added, aiming to change the manufacturing location.
Washington has already warned that it could apply additional tariffs of up to 40% to products of disguised Chinese origin.
Roland Rajah, economist at the Australian think tank Lowy, estimated that Chinese exports to the region increased by up to 30% in September, highlighting that this wave is different from previous ones. “Much of what is being exported is pro-growth,” he said, indicating that around 60% of goods sent by China are components used in products manufactured in the region for re-export.
In the consumer goods segment, China has consolidated itself as the region’s main supplier, with emphasis on the automobile sector. Chinese electric vehicles, such as those from electric and hybrid vehicle maker BYD, have been replacing Japanese models, including Toyota, Honda and Nissan, traditionally dominant in Southeast Asia.
According to data from consultancy PwC, the market share of Japanese manufacturers in the six main Southeast Asian markets fell to 62% in the first half of 2025, compared to an average of 77% in the 2010s. China, in turn, went from a residual presence to more than 5% of a market of 3.3 million vehicles per year.
Faced with pressure from Chinese competition, some Southeast Asian countries have tightened import rules and are considering tariffs on certain products.