Spain’s economy grew 2.8% in the third quarter of the year compared to the same period in 2024 and 0.6% overall (in relation to the previous three months), the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE) announced this Tuesday, 23rd.
In the second quarter (April to June), Spain’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had grown 2.9% year-on-year (compared to the same months of the previous year) and 0.7% quarter-on-quarter.
Growth in the third quarter (July to September) was due to national demand (investment and consumption), which contributed 3.8 points to the increase in GDP in year-on-year terms.
External demand (exports and imports) had a negative contribution of 1 point compared to the same period in 2024.
The Spanish economy grew 3.5% in 2024, according to the most recent updated estimate from INE.
In September, the Government of Spain and the Bank of Spain improved their growth forecasts for the country’s economy this year, to 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively.
The Government expects the Spanish economy to grow by 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 and 2028, with a positive impact on the labor market that should allow the country’s unemployment rate to fall to 8.7% in 2028.
Spain currently has the highest unemployment rate in the European Union, with the Government estimating that it will stand at 10.3% at the end of this year.
Throughout this estimation period, domestic demand (consumption and investment) will be the engine of economic growth, especially household consumption, while the contribution of external demand (exports and imports) will be negative until 2028, according to the Government.
As for the Bank of Spain, it improved the country’s GDP growth forecasts in 2025 by two tenths, to 2.6%, maintaining the estimated increase of 1.8% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027.
The Spanish central bank also bases the new estimates on the dynamism of domestic demand, especially private consumption.
More recently, on November 17, the European Commission also improved the prospects for the Spanish economy in 2025 and 2026, with estimates of GDP growth of 2.9% and 2.3%.
“Maintaining the strong growth of the first half of 2025, economic activity should remain robust” in Spain and “domestic demand will be the main driver of growth in the period 2025-2027”, mainly due to “the boost in private consumption and the positive performance of investment”, reads the document from the European Commission (EC) with the autumn forecasts for the economy.
According to Brussels, in the case of Spain, private consumption is expected to “benefit from greater purchasing power and employment growth, “in a context of sustainable immigration”, with “continuous migratory flows” that “are considerably expanding the workforce and boosting the pace of job creation”.
The EC also refers to a positive impact on the Spanish economy from the implementation of the European Recovery and Resilience Plan (PRR) funds.
Along with GDP growth of 2.9% in 2025, Brussels predicts inflation of 2.6% this year in Spain and 2% in 2026. Inflation was 2.9% in 2024.
As for the unemployment rate, the commission maintains its forecast of a reduction to 10.4% in 2025 and 9.8% in 2026, after having stood at 11.4% last year.
The EC forecasts, on the other hand, a public deficit of 2.5% this year in Spain (the previous estimate was 2.8%), after 3.2% in 2024.
As for Spanish public debt, the EC estimates that it will fall from 101.6% of GDP in 2024 to 100% this year and 92.8% in 2026.
The European Commission predicted on the same day that the euro zone’s GDP will grow 1.3% this year.