In an April research note that has resurfaced in markets, Standard Chartered reiterated its call that XRP could reach $8 by the end of 2026implying more than 300% upside from current levels. The bank argues that XRP is finally free to grow without the legal uncertainty that capped demand during the last cycle. That shift is already visible in market structure. Since launching in November 2025, U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs have attracted roughly $1.25 billion in net inflowswith no reported outflow days.
XRP’s recent price behavior reflects a market in transition. After peaking near the $2.70–$3.00 zone, XRP pulled back sharply to around $1.86 in late December 2025. That move flushed out leveraged positions and reset short-term sentiment.
Since then, the token has staged a steady recovery. Over the past 4–5 weeksXRP has traded within a $1.80 to $3.40 rangeposting a monthly decline of about 8.7% but crucially holding above long-term support near $2.00–$2.15.
On a year-to-date basis, XRP is still up roughly 13.5%outperforming several major peers. Daily trading volume recently climbed to $5.59 billionsignaling renewed participation from both retail and institutional traders.
Short-term resistance remains clustered around $2.70–$3.06. A clean breakout above that zone could open the door toward $2.95–$3.10 in the near term, according to multiple technical models.
One of the biggest changes in XRP’s narrative is political and regulatory. Under President Donald TrumpU.S. crypto policy has shifted toward clearer frameworks and reduced enforcement uncertainty. For XRP, that shift has been decisive.Once viewed primarily through the lens of litigation risk, XRP is now being repositioned as an institutional settlement and liquidity asset. Ripple’s expanding partnerships and the approval of spot XRP ETFs have reinforced that transition.
ETF-driven demand is especially important because it introduces passive, long-term capital. Unlike speculative traders, ETF investors tend to buy and hold. Over time, that behavior can tighten supply and dampen volatility, supporting higher valuations if inflows persist.
Relative performance also tells a story. Over the past week, XRP gained 8.1%outperforming both Bitcoin and Ethereumwhich have traded mostly sideways. Bitcoin remains range-bound near $106,000while Ethereum hovers around $2,900struggling to attract comparable volume.
Why Standard Chartered sees XRP hitting $8 by 2026
The turning point for XRP came in August 2025when Ripple formally settled its long-running lawsuit with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Ripple agreed to pay a $50 million finea fraction of the SEC’s original demand, effectively closing the case and removing the securities overhang in the United States. For banks, asset managers, and ETF issuers, that resolution cleared a major barrier.
Standard Chartered’s digital assets research team, led by Geoff Kendricksays this regulatory clarity is central to its bullish outlook. With XRP no longer viewed as a legal risk, institutions can allocate capital more freely. The bank estimates that $4–8 billion in spot XRP ETF inflows over 2026 could materially tighten supply, especially as exchange balances fall toward multi-year lows.
The bank outlines a clear price path. XRP is projected to average around $5.50 in 2025rise to $8 by the end of 2026and potentially extend toward $12.50 by 2028 if adoption trends hold. At $8, XRP’s market capitalization would approach $450 billionplacing it firmly among the largest global digital assets.
The strongest evidence of institutional interest is coming from ETFs. Spot XRP funds from issuers such as Bitwise and Franklin Templeton have built over $1.1 billion in assets within weeks of launch. Exchange data shows XRP balances down nearly 45% year over yearsuggesting long-term holders and funds are absorbing supply.
Yet price has not followed. XRP ended December near $1.85despite volumes running more than 20% above weekly averages during several sessions. Analysts describe the action as positioning rather than panic. Buyers are present, but sellers continue to lean on rallies, keeping XRP trapped in a narrow range.
XRP price action today: market context and recent performance
While Wall Street flows look strong, on-chain data paints a more cautious picture. Daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger peaked above 600,000 in March 2025 but fell to roughly 38,500 by late Decembera decline of more than 90%. Critics argue that ETF buying alone cannot sustain a long-term rally without renewed network usage.
Veteran technical analysts have warned that fading activity could pressure price further if retail demand does not return. The concern is that XRP risks becoming a purely financial product, disconnected from real transaction growth on the ledger.
In the near term, $1.85 remains the level to watch. XRP has repeatedly tested and held this support, but a decisive break could open a move toward $1.77with deeper demand near $1.60–$1.55. On the upside, bulls need a sustained close above $1.92–$1.93 to shift momentum and reopen the path to $2.00 and $2.08.
Another catalyst looms in January: the scheduled 1 billion XRP escrow unlock. Even if much of it is re-escrowed, the event often increases volatility, especially when price is compressed near major support.
Standard Chartered’s $8 target assumes favorable macro conditions, continued ETF inflows, and no major whale-driven sell-offs. For now, XRP enters 2026 caught between strong institutional conviction and weak network activity, setting the stage for a move that traders expect to be sharp rather than gradual.
FAQs:
Q: Why does Standard Chartered believe XRP could reach $8 by 2026 despite recent price weakness? A: The forecast is based on improved U.S. regulatory clarity after Ripple’s SEC settlement in August 2025. Standard Chartered expects $4–8 billion in spot XRP ETF inflows during 2026. Falling exchange balances and reduced legal risk could amplify price moves if institutional demand remains steady.
Q: What are the main risks that could prevent XRP from reaching the $8 target?
A: XRP network activity fell more than 90% in 2025, signaling weak real-world usage. Price remains below key resistance near $2 despite $1.25 billion in ETF inflows. January’s 1 billion XRP escrow unlock and potential whale selling could increase downside pressure.