The meeting comes at a tense moment for the U.S. economy. Inflation has eased from last year’s highs but remains uneven across sectors. Job market data is also patchy after recent reporting delays. That makes this meeting one of the most anticipated of 2025.
Analysts highlight unusual division inside the FOMC, with some officials worried about still‑sticky inflation versus a cooling labor market. Recent commentary from Powell has avoided fully endorsing market odds, leaving room for either a smaller move or a hold if data risk looms larger.
The Federal Reserve has already cut rates twice in 2025. A 25-basis-point cut came in Septemberfollowed by another 25-bps cut in Octoberbringing the federal funds rate down to 3.75%–4.00%. Markets now expect a third consecutive cut at the December 10 meeting, with traders pricing in an 85% probability of another 25-bps move.
But the path ahead is complicated. The Fed is navigating weakening job growth, rising layoffs, and small-business hiring losses. Inflation is still above the 2% targetdriven by persistent service-sector prices and recent tariff-related costs.
A temporary shutdown disrupted key economic data, leaving policymakers to work with incomplete inflation and labor-market numbers. That “data fog” increases the risk of misjudging the economy.
The committee is also deeply divided. Some officials want more cuts to support growth. Others warn that cutting too aggressively could fuel inflation or create financial-stability risks. Credit markets and asset valuations have already become more volatile as expectations shift. The central question now is whether the Fed can continue easing without reigniting inflation — or whether December’s move will be the last cut for a while.
How to watch Jerome Powell’s speech live?
The Federal Reserve will stream Powell’s press conference live on its official YouTube channel and Fed.gov webcast portal. Major financial networks will also broadcast the event with live expert commentary.
Investors can expect real-time coverage across all major news platforms as markets prepare for immediate reaction in futures, bonds, and the dollar.
Wall Street is positioned for a 25-basis-point rate cutwhich would mark the third consecutive cut of 2025. Futures markets are pricing in an 85% probability of a cut, according to CME FedWatch–style estimates referenced across financial reports.
Yet the Fed is not united. Several FOMC members have signaled caution, citing persistent service-sector inflation and cooling but still-tight labor conditions. The absence of timely government data has also made forecasting riskier, raising the possibility that the Fed may choose to pause rather than cut aggressively.
A cut is expected, but Powell’s language will be critical. Markets will parse every sentence to understand whether the Fed still sees room for easing in early 2026—or whether this will be the last cut for a while.
What Powell may highlight in his December speech
Powell is expected to address inflation’s uneven trajectory, recent wage-growth moderation, and the data disruptions that complicated the committee’s decision-making. The Fed’s updated dot plot will offer the clearest clue to 2026 policy.
Analysts expect a divided projection. Some members may indicate one or two more cuts next year, while hawkish voices may argue for holding rates steady until inflation falls closer to target. Any signs of dissent in the vote could influence bond yields within minutes.
Powell will also likely discuss financial stability risks, including rapid movements in commodities and currency markets following the recent surge in safe-haven demand.
Is a Fed rate cut already locked in?
Not entirely. While traders overwhelmingly expect a cut, Powell has repeatedly warned that December’s outcome is “not a foregone conclusion.” Lingering inflation, weaker consumer spending, and fragile labor signals give the Fed reasons to stay cautious.
If the Fed does cut, the tone of the press conference will matter more than the move itself. A softening outlook could trigger a rally in equities and metals, while a cautious or hawkish tone may send yields higher and pressure risk assets.
The December meeting is shaping up to be the Fed’s most consequential moment of 2025. Markets worldwide will be watching every word.