Trump’s ultimatum to Maduro advances with firm steps

Beyond the official pretexts about the fight against drug trafficking or the sanctioned blockade of crude oil, few doubt that the true objective is to force a regime change in Caracas.

Something that we have seen this week when the US has carried out a new movement of force against the Government of Nicolás Maduro by seizing for the first time an oil tanker from Venezuela, the Skipper. And he threatens more seizures in his offensive to suffocate the Venezuelan leader.

The operation represents a turning point in the sanctions policy that Washington has applied since 2019 and comes at a time of maximum tension between both countries, where Trump has ordered a large military deployment in the area.

A deployment that has made possible the seizure of Skipper: Helicopters from the USS Gerald R. Ford – the largest aircraft carrier in the world, in the region – intercepted the ship, in a maneuver that involved special forces and Marines.

The use of Gerald R. Ford, furthermore, underlines the turn towards visible military pressure as a deterrent tool. Not in vain does it have long-range Tomahawk missiles, long coveted by Ukraine, the US Navy today has the ability to attack targets anywhere in Venezuela.

However, despite Trump’s threats, the tightening of sanctions and international isolation, Maduro remains firm, supported by strategic allies such as Russia, China and Iran, who despite their domestic difficulties do not hesitate to show their support.

show of strength

The Caribbean has once again become the scene of one of the United States’ greatest shows of force in decades. Under the umbrella of an anti-drug operation known as ‘Operation Southern Spear’, Washington has deployed a powerful mix of naval, air and amphibious forces that evoke Cold War deployments and have raised tensions with Caracas to the highest point in years.

Mobilization of US forces began in mid-Augustwhen the White House sent the first three warships toward the northern coast of South America. In a matter of weeks, the presence multiplied to seven ships and a nuclear attack submarine, with some 4,500 sailors and riflemen on board.

The initial nucleus was made up of the amphibious group of the USS Iwo Jima, along with other assault ships with the official mission of combating drug trafficking networks.

At the end of that same month, the first direct military action was recorded: the destruction of a ship from Venezuela, which according to Washington was transporting drugs linked to the Tren de Aragua criminal group. This attack marked an operational turn and began a period of greater aggressiveness on the ground.

In October, the deployment escalated to the air plane. Flights of B-52 and B-1 bombers over or near Venezuelan space, accompanied by F-35B fighters, they reinforced the deterrent message.

In parallel, bases in Puerto Rico, Central America and other Caribbean islands began to host P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, AC-130 aircraft and MQ-9 Reaper drones, which reinforced surveillance over maritime routes.

Previously, in September, images released by Reuters showed that The US was improving landing and takeoff capabilities at Roosevelt Roadsthe former headquarters of one of the world’s most important naval bases, before its closure in 2004.

Likewise, renovation work was carried out at the civil airports of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. There were quite a few experts who related these actions with the necessary preparations for an attack against Venezuela.

Data from flight logs indicate more than 200 military air movements in two months, a level that reflects intense operational and logistical activity.

The decisive moment came in November with The entry of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford into the Caribbean Sea. Their arrival turned the operation into the largest concentration of US naval assets in the area since the 1990s.

That same month, the Pentagon announced the formalization of the device under the new Joint Force “Southern Spear”, led by the II Marine Expeditionary Force, with a focus on unmanned systems and special operations against illicit networks.

Besides, The 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit intensified amphibious exercises in waters near Puerto Rico, consolidating the ability to project force towards the Venezuelan coasts, a movement interpreted by analysts as a sign of direct pressure on the government of Nicolás Maduro.

The theater of operations has been structured around a central logistical axis: Puerto Rico, where at least ten F-35 fighters and several highly autonomous drones are concentrated in the -now- modernized Roosevelt Roads base, which acts as an operations and logistics center.

In support, guided missile destroyers, attack submarines and the special operations ship MV Ocean Trader operate, which serves as a mobile base for elite forces. In recent days, E-3 Sentry early warning aircraft (AWACS) have been seen.

Armed civilians and militia

When the United States began military pressure in the Caribbean Sea, with the focus openly on Venezuela, the Government of Nicolás Maduro mobilized the population.

Through traditional civil resources, through associations and groups controlled from the Miraflores Palace in Caracas, Thousands of people flocked to join the militias communal.

The militia is a volunteer body created in 2009 by Hugo Chávez, but integrated into the National Armed Forces Bolivarian since 2020.

“This is a town that understood that here There is a common enemy and they must prepareget ready and put yourself in order if we have to defend this in a war scenario,” said a member of the Resistencia y Rebellión collective, to the agency Efe.

The call for civilians to join the ranks lasted several weeks, during which time the Maduro Government He set up tents in the squares of neighborhoods and towns in which officials targeted anyone willing to take up arms.

Any Venezuelan citizen of legal age could—and still can today—enlist regardless of physical condition and without an apparent psychological filter.

“We ask every Venezuelan who loves his country [que se aliste]”It doesn’t matter that he doesn’t share our ideology,” Aidee Romero, head of a Hugo Chávez Battle Unit, an organization under the umbrella of the United Socialist Party, told the same agency.

“We cannot allow them to defile the country,” he stressed. “I hope it’s not with bulletsbut independence must be defended.”

In a statement issued by the Venezuelan Government at the beginning of September, they stated that “the objective is to mobilize more than 8.2 million” people registered in the National Defensive System.

A figure that will be added “to the solid base of 4.5 million militiamen already trained in previous years.” Adding up, Venezuela would have enlisted more than 12.5 million citizens ready to take up arms.

However, as extracted from the same statement, the Bolivarian National Armed Forces have faced a major challenge: military training of all new registrations.

Shortly after the beginning of mass recruitment, Nicolás Maduro announced the start of martial training.

“Next Saturday, September 20, the barracks, the Bolivarian Armed Forces, will go to the town, go to the communities, to locate them, to review, to teach all those who enlisted, neighbors, the management of the weapons system“said the Venezuelan president.

“It will be the first time that barracks with their weapons and soldiers go to the neighborhoodto the community,” Maduro stressed.

The training days passed without incident, almost under a festive atmosphere and exaltation of the country broadcast on state television.

Officially, it is unknown what the training consists of and the depth of military knowledge that is transferred to citizens; beyond the propaganda shown young people, adults and elderly wielding long weapons and rifles.

“We are marking a milestone in the construction and consolidation of our doctrinewhich grows, develops and expands every day for the defense of the homeland,” according to Vladimir Padrino López, Minister of Defense of Venezuela, at the beginning of the training.

The warmongering spirit promoted by the Venezuelan Government has sought to involve all civil strata and reach every corner of the country, peasants included.

“I trust in the Ezequiel Zamora National Peasant Union to […] be prepared to take up arms and defend the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela if it were attacked by the North American empire,” declared Maduro in the organization’s founding speech.

The following of Europe

In this context, Europe is once again trapped between strategic following of Washington and political discomfort in the face of a possible land operation, announced by Trump, that would violate the basic principles of international law.

The European Commission has chosen, until now, to maintain a complicit silence in this whole matter. Even when the American president used openly warmongering language — “let’s take down those sons of bitches.”

The Charter of the United Nations expressly prohibits the use or threat of use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State. It only admits two exceptions: legitimate defense in the face of an armed attack or the express authorization of the Security Council.. Outside of these cases, any intervention is illegal.

A unilateral operation of these characteristics would also break the collective security system built after the Second World War.

This contrast highlights not only a profound diplomatic incoherence, but also the fragility of Europe as a geopolitical actor with its own voice in the face of Washington’s decision-making power.