Monday, December 15. Buenos Aires, Argentina. A histrionic Javier Milei As usual, enthusiastic as in any of his political rallies, he walks towards the stage to make the speech that will star the night. Those present observe him with the smile with which a child observes his idol from a few meters away.
The Argentine president knows he is loved in that space. Take advantage of it. And he takes advantage of it, above all, because the winds in the region are running in his favor. This was confirmed by Chile, two days before, in its presidential elections.
“South America has awakened to the ideas of freedom, far from the calamity of 21st century socialism“, sentence. The above, because on Sunday night, José Antonio Kastleader of the right-wing Chilean Republican Party, won the polls easily and from March 11 of next year he will be President of the Republic. “This is happy news. I want to take the opportunity to congratulate him on his resounding victory.”he adds. The atmosphere is one of complete joy.
Kast, meanwhile, continued to prepare the final details for his first major tour as president-elect: Buenos Aires. “Milei is an inspiration and a role model to get Chile out of stagnation,” he said during the campaign. His admiration, of course, was never hidden behind the scenes. And all this, in the midst of obvious tensions between the Casa Rosada and La Moneda, governed until now by Gabriel Boric, a leader located at their ideological opposites.
Already in the trans-Andean capital, hugs arrived from those who, satisfied with their present, observe the future with hope. One hour lasted bilateral meeting between Kast and Milei and, although the event was above all a political signal, it also served to lay some foundations for what is believed to be a new relationship between both brother countries that have been in conflict for years.
Although security will be the cornerstone of the new understanding, Kast expressed the intention to also “strengthen the commercial and economic relationship in a way never seen before.” The two, who have known each other since the Conservative Action Political Conference (CPAC) held in Sao Paulo in 2022, understand the strategic importance of the dialogue that is starting. “We have an exit to the Pacific,” Kast also noted, already making merit.
The Trump Administration as gatekeeper
The truth is that it is not just Milei who is happy with the Chilean electoral result. With less fanfare, so is Donald Trump, the head of the White House. After some reactions from his representatives, such as the Secretary of State, Marco Rubioappeared before the press and sent some praise to the next president of Chile. He did so, even taking credit for certain achievements.
“A few hours ago I found out that in Chile, the person I supported, who was not leading (in the polls), ended up winning quite easily. So I am looking forward to congratulating him. I have heard that he is an excellent person,” he expressed to the journalists present. Of course, it matters little that Kast has actually led opinion polls for nine months. The desire to boast of a new success, for the Trump Administration, was stronger.
And the thing is that the United States Government has been paying attention to what is happening in Latin America for some time and at the same time is aware of the importance of what is resolved in the different elections. An example of this were his words, shortly before the parliamentary elections in Argentina on October 26, a decisive election for Milei – and in which he finally won – after having been defeated, a few months ago, by Peronism in the Province of Buenos Aires.
Prior to the vote, Trump questioned the White House’s economic contribution to Argentina if the result was adverse for the current government. In particular, the 40 billion dollars that he had offered to his counterpart shortly before. For analysts from that country, that “terror campaign” He helped Milei in a decisive moment. Well, if he was defeated, again, governability would become uphill with a parliament with a left-wing majority.
Honduras and an election that remains open
That is not the only interference that has existed from North America. Days ago, and after weeks of uncertainty in Honduras, due to suspicions of fraud in the elections and the delay in counting votes, the Office of Western Hemisphere Affairs called on the National Council (CNE) of that country to speed up the procedure and make the results known. “Any call to disrupt public order or the work of the CNE will have consequences,” the letter closed in the agency’s X account.
The CNE has until December 30 to present the final results, however, nothing ensures that the deadline will be met. The White House’s concern for the fate of the Central American country has, as can be inferred, political motives. It is the conservative Nasry “Tito” Asfura, presidential candidate of the National Party, who leads the possibilities of becoming Head of State with 40.54% of the votes. It is precisely him who Trump supports.
Ecuador and Bolivia: the other horizons in the spotlight
Although trends in the region are increasingly more favorable to the rightin the United States it is understood that nothing can be taken for granted. Above all, after experiences such as that of Ecuador, where the Government of Daniel Noboa received a severe setback in mid-November in a decisive plebiscite for the future of his mandate.
With the aim of having more tools to combat organized crime, above all, Noboa tried, through a referendum, to shortcut the limits established by the Constitution. However, The citizens responded “no” to each of the consultations carried out, leaving the president and his cabinet in a fragile position for the remainder of the period.
Above all, in view of the difficult figures being considered in the South American country. Everything indicates that Ecuador will end the year with a homicide rate greater than 50 per 100 thousand inhabitants. To make matters worse, both murders of children and adolescents have increased by almost 70% compared to 2024. Numbers that reflect a crisis, which, just as it brought Noboa to power and other right-wing leaders in different latitudes, can put their project in check prematurely.
Now, as in Chile and Argentina, the Trump Administration also enjoys relief when it comes to governance. After a runoff Between two right-wing candidates, it was Rodrigo Paz who won at the polls with the promise of facing the inflationary crisis. To achieve this, the same president has opted for a significant economic adjustment, echoing the Argentine experience, although with some nuances and with less force.
A policy that, of course, was applauded by the White House, on this occasion, by Rubio himself, always on top of what is happening in Latin America. “We recognize that the path forward will not be easy. The Bolivian people have endured years of economic stagnation, corruption and mismanagement. The reforms announced today constitute a necessary change of course that lays the foundation for a more prosperous and secure future for all Bolivians,” he declared, adding that US officials remain on Bolivian soil.
This being the case, there is nothing to predict that the United States will cease its efforts to make the region increasingly more aligned with its own interests. For their part, among leaders, the need for strategic alliances is growing in order to combat the political adversary and preserve in power.