This week, the flames around Federica Mogherini gave additional arguments to those seeking to destroy the European Union’s (EU) forest. It should not make us forget, however, that the EU is fundamental to Europe’s stability, security and progress. Nor can we ignore five of the existential risks that the project faces and whose solution must be considered a priority. In other words, political paralysis; the absence of strategic autonomy; economic stagnation; the growth of demagogic movements in several European societies and the erosion of their credibility in a good part of the countries of the Global South.
The EU, to respond to these challenges, needs to understand two realities.
Firstly, contrary to what certain intellectuals claim, the alliance with the USA has become extremely fragile. In the present, but not only. Donald Trump’s international vision, with or without him, is here to stay. In addition to “America First”, the geopolitical priorities of the new elites that control power are very clear and follow the following order: the situation in their hemisphere, the Indian and Pacific region, the Middle East, the Arctic and, at the end of the list, Europe.
Second, immediate structural reforms are needed. We are in a distinct, post-neocolonial, diverse and multipolar world. The United Nations, in its most political aspect, and the old Security Council, were immobilized in the past. Relations with former colonies went from subordination to equality and the emergence of new networks of interests. Europe must learn to navigate new international cooperation schemes, without illusions of neocolonial superiority.
Mario Draghi, in his September 2024 report on European competitiveness, which can be read as a pressing appeal, highlights the risk of the EU’s “slow agony” if it does not invest massively in the deepening of the single market, in the banking union, in digital technologies and in a cohesive and robust foreign policy, especially with regard to the USA, Russia and China. We have to leave a Europe that thinks like the petty bourgeoisie, like the would-be nouveau riche who place consumption and appearance above effort and the collective good. Of a Europe that is too often run by political opportunists. In Brussels and in the capitals of the Member States.
Draghi criticizes the decline in productivity, the fragmentation of the single market that drives high-potential growth companies to the other side of the Atlantic, the excessive regulatory burdens that stifle SMEs – we are a space governed by law firms and lobbyists for large private interests – and the lack of focus on clear priorities, such as innovation in advanced technologies and the link between decarbonization and economic growth.
It also considers it essential to end the unanimity rule in several sensitive areas, such as foreign policy, defense, budgetary issues and the accession of new members. These are some of the areas in which the principle of qualified majority should work: the double condition that requires simultaneously 65% of the population and 55% of the States. The unanimity rule is an obstacle to innovation and prevents quick responses to geopolitical crises. The world is in an accelerated process of change. We cannot build the future with the rules of the past.
This is also the time to put on the table an ambitious proposal that authorizes a common budget of at least 5% of European GDP, instead of the current 1%. This budget would be financed by its own taxes, currently not covered by the States. Its raison d’être would be to finance research in the fields of high technology, digital, energy, convergence between Member States, mobility of young people in the European space and support for initiatives that expand the European geopolitical field. These new funds could also serve to pay for the continued mobilization of a sufficiently large and robust European rapid reaction military force. This would be an important step on the path to strategic autonomy. Without energy and military sovereignty, the EU will be nothing more than an imposing but powerless Titan, just like the legendary Atlas.
The Global South, in its different facets, already defines much of the current geopolitical map. Europe must once again be the champion of international solidarity and cooperation. Among other aspects, it must contribute with donations, and not just loans, that help less developed countries in the fight against climate change and poverty. Likewise, EU states have an obligation to participate in coalitions that seek to modernize the political part of the UN, especially the issue of Security Council representation. The Global South appreciates the UN. Europe would gain if it were seen as committed to this process of rebirth.
Like the Western Roman Empire in the 5th century, the EU believes in the illusion of a certain external greatness. Rome fell not because of a battle, but through slow erosion: loss of citizens’ trust, collapse of the central authority, corrupted and totally distracted from the reality that was important, futile quarrels in the Senate and growing threats from abroad. It is urgent not to follow the same path.
International security advisor. Former UN Deputy Secretary-General