As the move moves closer to execution, unease is growing in the Kremlin. Although the assets were blocked on February 28, 2022, as soon as the war broke out, Moscow had not reacted until now. This Friday, the Bank of Russia announced a lawsuit against Euroclear, the Brussels-based company that custody most of the funds.
The EU replies that it has a powerful legal shield to counter any attack Kremlin legal. All the measures that the EU has taken are “legally sound” and “completely in accordance with international and EU law”, defended the Commissioner for Economy, Valdis Dombrovskis.
“It is foreseeable that Russia will continue to initiate speculative legal proceedings to prevent the EU from enforcing international law and to avoid its legal obligation to compensate Ukraine for the damage it has caused“, admits Dombrovskis
“For this reason, both in our current sanctions regime and in the proposals we presented last week, we have included additional protections for EU financial institutions that custody these assets,” said the head of the Economy.
In particular, The EU will not recognize or enforce any judicial, arbitral or administrative resolution that responds to the Kremlin’s demands. In addition, European depositaries can offset any seizures they suffer in Russia with assets frozen on European territory.
However, Belgium, which fears becoming the main target of Moscow’s retaliation, considers that these protective measures remain insufficient. This Friday, the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmerhas met in London with his Belgian counterpart, Bart de Weverto try to convince him to lift his veto.
Time is short. At the beginning of 2026, Volodymyr Zelensky’s Government will run out of money to pay payroll, public services or weapons to continue in the fight. Brussels estimates that Ukraine will need 135.7 billion euros to stay afloat over the next few years and resist Kremlin aggression.
But Trump has turned off the aid to Zelensky since he came to powerand EU governments neither have the budgetary margin to plug that hole nor are they willing to support another massive joint debt issue.
Therefore, after almost four years rejecting the idea for the huge risks involvedEuropean leaders are now considering sending kyiv the 210 billion assets of the Bank of Russia frozen in the EU since the war broke out. The majority (185 billion) are in Euroclear.
With this money, the EU intends to grant Ukraine a ‘reparations loan’, the initial amount of which will be 90 billion euros. kyiv would only have to return the money in the very unlikely event that Moscow compensates it for damages caused by the war.
The first step has already been taken. In an unprecedented initiative, the EU approved this Friday to freeze these 210 billion in perpetuity, activating an emergency mechanism that allows decisions to be made by a qualified majority, with the sole objective of overcoming the veto of Hungary’s Víktor Orbán.
Until now, the blockade had to be renewed unanimously every 6 months and Budapest has already threatened on several occasions to revoke it. lThe release of Russian sovereign funds would immediately put in check the entire framework of the ‘reparations loan’.
The surprising thing about the case is that in this Friday’s vote, Belgium has supported the indefinite freezing of the assets of the Bank of Russia. However, it has published a statement in which it states that ““This vote in no way prejudges the decision on the possible use of frozen Russian assets, which must be adopted at the leadership level.”
The declaration is also signed by Italy, Bulgaria and Malta, which until now had not expressed any reservations about the sending of Russian assets to Ukraine. In the end, The only ones who voted ‘no’ were Hungary and Slovakiaas reported by diplomatic sources.
“At the October summitEU leaders pledged to keep Russian assets frozen until Russia ends its war of aggression against Ukraine and compensates for the damage caused. Today we fulfill that commitment,” wrote the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa.
Now the decisive step is missing: converting the frozen Russian assets into the ‘reparations loan’ for Ukraine. De Wever requires guarantees from the rest of the Member States to cover all of the funds, as well as the rest of the associated risks.
The president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyenassures that it has already responded to “the majority” of Belgium’s demands. Negotiations will continue until the last minute. Costa himself has warned that the summit on Thursday, December 18 could be extended until Friday or Saturday. Until there is white smoke.