Russia’s economic growth will not exceed 1% in the fourth year of the war with Ukraine. The guarantee comes from Vladimir Putin, who highlights what he describes as a effort to bring the inflation rate down from 6%at the same time that the Russians are faced with US sanctions. Speaking to Russian television, he himself made a comparison with the eurozone.
In 2025, “GDP growth is 1%” said the Russian head of statehaving reiterated that “if we analyze the last three years, total growth was 9.7%”. In the same period, he added, “the growth of the euro zone economy was 3.1%”.
In this regard, remember that the euro zone’s GDP grew by 0.4% in 2023 and 0.9% in 2024, while for 2025 growth of around 1.2% is predicted. Still without annual data, in the third quarter GDP grew 1.4%, year-on-year, in single currency countries.
Putin also remembers that “we set the objective of reducing inflation to at least 6%”which should happen, according to him. The estimates cited by him indicate a decline to the range between 5.7% and 5.8%. In this context, the cut in economic growth “is a conscious step”, so that it is possible to “conserve the quality of the economy and macroeconomic indicators”, he further explains.
Remember that data on the Russian economy point to a year-on-year increase of 6.6% in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November. Despite being a number well above the limits considered healthy by most economists, it has been falling since March, when it reached 10.3%.
In November, Russian crude exports fell 35%, as a result of US sanctions on Russia’s largest oil companies. Furthermore, the most recent reports indicate that the US is preparing new sanctions, in case Putin does not accept the peace agreement that is on the table, proposed by the USA.