A BlackRock looks at Portugal with “good eyes” and notes that the Portuguese capital market has a potential that is on par with Spain, ahead of its European counterparts. On the other hand, AI is not in an investment “bubble”.
The person responsible for BlackRock’s business in Portugal, André Themudo, says this. In a meeting with journalists held in Lisbon, he outlined perspectives for 2026 on the most promising markets, having noted that BlackRock remains optimistic about the Portuguese case.
The event is organized by the asset manager twice a year. There, asset allocation perspectives and economic perspectives are shared. The meeting was based on a report prepared by the BlackRock Investment Institute, formed by more than 100 macroeconomists and fund managers from the company.
Optimism about Portugal has as its starting point the perspective on European markets. In these, he explains, there are “three sectors we like: finance, infrastructure and health”. Now, according to BlackRock, the Iberian stock markets have significant representation, meaning sees potential in Portugal and Spain.
At the origin of this assessment of the national economy are the “growth above the euro zone average, low inflation compared to peer countries and a dynamic stock market”which adds a scenario political stability and the tourism sector as a driver of growthclarifies.
As regards Portugal and the Portuguese market, “we remain positive”since it is “a case of macroeconomic resilience”points out the person responsible for BlackRock in the country.
On the other hand, there are “challenges”in a scenario of “still high public debt, demographic aging and modest productivity gains in some sectors of activity”. In this context, the situation is “quite positive for Portugal and Spain, but requires prudent management and continuous reforms”he points out.
Rejects the idea of a bubble in AI, but… “not everything that glitters is gold”
The expert points to phenomena such as the digitalization of the economy and the energy transition as “megaforces”, which are structural, that is, they are here to stay in the long term.
In any case, “at the center” is Artificial Intelligence, which “is making technology much more capital intensive”, he recalls, citing estimates that point to investments of 5 to 8 billion dollars by 2030, on a global scale. Furthermore, AI affects economies, capital markets, energy and geopolitics, which is why it is “the main driver of American actions”, he highlights.
Therefore, André Themudo does not believe that there is an “AI bubble”. At issue is an eventuality that in the recent past was raised by several experts, such as the CEO of Alphabet (owner of Google), Sundar Pichai. In November, he warned of what he interpreted as “irrationality” in investments in the sector.
Therefore, BlackRock anticipates that AI “will continue to be a dominant topic in 2026” and maintains a ‘pro-risk’ position, similar to what it took last year and in mid-2025. In this context, it emphasizes the importance of “differentiating between winners and producers”, since “not everything that glitters is gold”.
At issue is the idea that “we are increasingly in an active management environment”, in which we seek to overcome the behavior of the S&P 500 index. The scenario, he says, is more favorable to this approach than the option of investing in ETFs. These are investment funds that bring together securities from several companies and involve a passive approach, allowing you to diversify your portfolio with low investment.
He himself mentions three aspects that he says are clear priorities for European countries, with regard to structural reforms. They are defense (with increases in investment), energy (cheaper and safer, through investment in renewables, networks and simplification of licensing) and mobilization of savings. “In Europe there are more than 14 billion euros sitting in deposits, which generate little or no income”, he highlights regarding this last topic.
Blackrock expects interest rates to stabilize in 2026
Another topic on the table was the global economic scenario, namely the future of reference interest rates. In the case of the European Central BankAndré State sees no room for further cutsso interest rates are expected to remain unchanged (between 2% and 2.25%).
Concerning US Federal Reserve the expert anticipates one to two cuts of 25 basis points by the end of 2026. André Themudo stressed that the forecast remained unchanged, regardless of a likely cut, hours after the meeting. The scenario would be confirmed, still on Wednesday, with the Fed lowering rates by 25 points, to 3.5% to 3.75%. That said, the expert now expects interest rates to remain unchanged or a drop of 25 basis points by the end of next year.
“We think there is not as much ground to go down as, perhaps, the market anticipates”. Looking ahead to 2026, he reiterates the existence of “several opportunities” and sees the US, Japanese and Indian markets as positive, along with the European periphery, which encompasses Portugal and Spain.