“Peace is on the horizon; things have happened that suggest that this war can end quickly.” The statement, which has to do with the war in Ukraine, belongs to the Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tuskand was pronounced this Tuesday at the end of a high-level conversation in which the leaders of several European countries, the Canadian Prime Minister and the Secretary General of NATO also participated: Mark Rutte.
In any case, Tusk, whose statements have been reproduced in the Polish press, wanted to qualify his initial enthusiasm shortly after by saying that “at the moment it remains only a hope far from being 100% confirmed.” In any case, he explained that if peace is truly achieved, the process will be a matter of “weeks, not months or years.”
Tusk’s comments, as well as the meeting he previously held with the other leaders, come after the visit by Volodímir Zelenski a Donald Trump this weekend. Afterwards, both leaders agreed that the new peace proposal – structured around 20 points – was in its final phase… in the absence of knowing whether the Russian president, Vladimir Putinaccepts certain parameters.
When arguing his optimism, Tusk has pointed out the United States’ willingness to offer security guarantees to Ukraine. Security guarantees that could “include the presence of US troops along the front” once the ceasefire is agreed.
This measure crosses one of the red lines put forward by the Kremlin – the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine – but, if Trump manages to convince Putin, it could be a turning point.
What there still does not seem to be an agreement on is the duration of these security guarantees. The White House has offered them for 15 years, but in kyiv they ask for at least three decades and, if possible, half a century.
“The Ukrainian president has requested guarantees of up to 50 years,” he wrote on Monday Christopher Millerone of the correspondents of the Financial Times in kyiv and someone who has a direct line to the Ukrainian political elite. “Zelensky reportedly told Trump that 15 years would be too short a time to deter Russia in a conflict that began with the annexation of Crimea in 2014.” That is: more than a decade ago.
However, apart from Tusk, no other Western leader has commented on the possibility of sending troops. And at the time of writing these lines, none of those involved – neither Zelensky nor Trump – have publicly confirmed that the United States is willing to deploy them in Ukraine.
“Of course we have discussed it both with Trump and with the rest of our partners and of course we would like to,” Zelensky clarified when asked by several journalists. “But they are American troops and only the United States can make that decision.” “We will see how coherent our partners will be on the other side of the Atlantic,” Tusk said in this regard this Tuesday.
Control of Zaporizhia and Donbas
At the press conference following Sunday’s meeting, held at Trump’s personal residence, the US president described the talks with Zelensky as important progress towards a peace agreement that Ukraine and Russia are getting “very close to.” Still, Trump acknowledged that there are still a couple of “thorny issues” to resolve.
The main one would have to do with the territory of Donbas; the region of eastern Ukraine where in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea by Russia, hostilities between both countries continued.
Ukraine still controls 30% (highly fortified) of that territory and does not plan to cede it to Russia given its strategic and symbolic importance. For his part, Putin has repeatedly assured that there can be no peace without first gaining control of the entire Donbas.
What the United States proposes is to establish a demilitarized zone in the place. Zelensky appears to have reluctantly agreed as long as it is guaranteed that Russian troops also leave that part of the territory. Hence the importance of a supposed US deployment in the area; It would be the Americans who would guarantee this demilitarization and the absence of Russian soldiers.
The second point that remains to be resolved has to do with the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. A facility on the banks of the Dnieper River, very close to the front line, but which has been in the hands of Russia since March 2022. kyiv would like to regain control of it to prevent, among other things, the Kremlin from using it against Ukraine.
Tusk has clarified that Zelensky will have to consult the Ukrainian people so that they can give their consent regarding territorial decisions. “Zelensky is showing good will,” added the premier Pole before explaining that a peace like the one on the horizon would be “exceptionally positive” for Poland.