DONALD Trump’s administration insists the US is not at war with Venezuela, even as America’s overwhelming military strength exposes just how outmatched Nicolás Maduro’s forces really are.
US officials say the operation that led to Maduro’s capture was a targeted strike against narcotrafficking and criminal networks, not a conflict with the Venezuelan people.
But the scale of US firepower now massed in the Caribbean shows Washington could crush Caracas in days if it chose to.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio rejected claims the US is in open conflict with Caracas as Maduro is set to appear in a New York court on Monday.
“That’s not a war,” Rubio said.
“I mean we are at war against drug trafficking organisations. That’s not a war against Venezuela.”
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Rubio said US action against vessels “bringing drugs toward the United States” will continue.
US muscle in the Caribbean
The US military buildup in the Caribbean has been supercharged by the arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier near Latin America, fueLling speculation about a wider clash.
America has framed the surge as an anti-narcotics operation, but the scale is hard to miss: roughly 15,000 personnel in the region alongside more than a dozen warships, plus an attack submarine, and 10 F-35 fighter jets deployed to Puerto Rico.
Against that, Venezuela’s forces are widely seen as aging, overstretched, and struggling to maintain equipment after years of economic crisis and sanctions.
Venezuela’s conventional military – the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB) – has about 123,000 active personnel.
That includes 63,000 in the army, 25,500 in the navy, 11,500 in the air force, and 23,000 in the national guard, supplemented by around 8,000 reservists.
Caracas also claims a vast civilian militia force, but outside estimates are far lower than Maduro’s rhetoric.
Ageing Soviet-style military
Venezuela built its military image on Russian hardware bought during the Hugo Chávez era, with kit that includes Su-30 fighter jets, T-72 tanks, and S-300 air defenses.
But analysts say the force looks stronger on paper than it does in reality, with serious doubts about maintenance and operational capability after more than a decade of economic hardship and an exodus of millions of Venezuelans.
Even Venezuela’s air force, which has long been considered its sharpest edge, is limited.
The country is thought to have had 24 Su-30MK2 fighter jets at one point, but at least three have crashed, according to one assessment, raising fresh questions over upkeep and spare parts.
Venezuela also operates a handful of older US-made F-16s bought before Chávez.
On the seas, Venezuela’s navy is described as a weak point, operating just one Mariscal Sucre-class frigate and one Type-209 submarine, alongside patrol vessels.
US capture operation a ‘masterstroke’
In an exclusive interview, former British military intelligence officer Philip Ingram described the operation that netted Maduro as both bold and brutally effective.
He told The Sun: “It was a very audacious, extremely well-planned, and extremely well-executed military operation.
“Trying to identify exactly where President Maduro of Venezuela would be, where you could fix them for the length of time it would take to get special forces in to execute his capture, arrest, and exfiltration in a way that protects the force that’s going in is a masterstroke.”
Ingram said Venezuela’s ability to fight back has been smashed, adding that “Venezuela’s military has been neutralised effectively.”
He also warned the hard part starts now – the plan after the raid.
“From a military planning perspective, and this is military planning and diplomatic planning, it all comes together; you don’t execute an operation like this unless you’ve got a plan for what comes next,” Ingram explained.
“The Americans will have thought this through. And the timing of this particular action will be something that the Americans have been waiting for.
“They’ve been waiting for the opportunity where they can properly fix Maduro into a position to give them sufficient time to go in and get him out without him escaping and hiding in the countryside and going on the run, which would cause a huge headache for the United States, and cause diplomatic issues that would go on for a long, long time.
“The justification under international law is something that will come out in the coming hours and days.”