This year 2025 will be marked in the history of mobile technology as the moment when Samsung’s hegemony of more than a decade comes to an end. For the first time in 14 years, Apple secured global leadership in sales volume of smartphones, in a move that analysts describe as a “perfect storm” of product strategy and consumer behavior.
According to data from Counterpoint Research and from BloombergApple is expected to end the year with approximately 243 million iPhones sold, capturing 19.4% of the global market share. Samsung, although maintaining a robust position, falls to second place with 235 million units (18.7%)seeing its 4.6% growth eclipsed by the 10% acceleration of Tim Cook’s company.
For analysts at Counterpointthe paradigm shift is largely due to the so-called “supercycle” of post-pandemic updating. Millions of consumers who purchased mobile phones during the 2020 and 2021 lockdowns reached the renewal critical point this year. Unlike Samsung, which democratized its Artificial Intelligence (Galaxy AI) for older models, Apple restricted Apple Intelligence’s most advanced features to hardware most recent, creating a “mandatory” incentive for upgrade for iPhone 16 and 17 series.
iPhone Air fell short of projections
Contrary to the brand’s general growth trend, the new iPhone Air faced a difficult reception in the market. Designed to replace the “Plus” range, with an ultra-thin 5.6mm profile, the device recorded demand levels significantly lower than the company’s initial estimates.
Supply chain reports, cited by the specialized portal MacRumors and corroborated by notes from analysts at Morgan Stanley, indicate that Apple will have reduced production orders by around 90% within weeks of the product arriving in stores. Consumer reaction appears to have been influenced by the product’s positioning: with a price of over 1200 euros, the model offers technical specifications – particularly in terms of the single camera and battery capacity – that put it at a direct disadvantage compared to the iPhone 17 Pro.
Sales data suggests that the Most consumers in that price segment chose to invest the residual difference to purchase the “Pro” model, or preferred the base iPhone 17resulting in a stagnation of “Air” on the shelves.
The American surprise: the rise of the Google Pixel
While Apple and Samsung fought for the top, a third player has silently consolidated itself in one of the most difficult markets in the world. In the United States, the Google Pixel recorded surprising performance in 2025.
Data from Counterpoint indicate that, in September 2025, sales of the Pixel line in the US grew 28% compared to the previous year. Google managed to capture around 6% to 7% of the North American premium market (devices above 600 dollars).
Although these numbers seem modest compared to the giants, they represent crucial growth. Success is due to a aggressive partnership strategy with operators and deep integration of the Gemini AI modelwhich attracted Android users who were looking for a “pure” alternative to Samsung’s loaded interface, but who didn’t want to migrate to iOS.
2026: the year of response and the folding threat?
The big question now is whether Apple’s dominance will continue. Samsung remains technically king in the foldable market, but 2026 could be the year in which its last major competitive advantage is put to the test.
Market analysts suggest that the South Korean company could try to regain the throne by betting on innovative formatsas a possible model tri-fold (tri-fold, similar to what Huawei showed off in China) to revive interest in the Galaxy Z series.
However, persistent rumors from the Asian production chain point to the “elephant in the room”: Apple’s entry into the foldable market. Reports indicate that Apple may launch its first foldable device (probably a flip or an iPad/iPhone hybrid) in late 2026 or early 2027.
If Apple enters this segment with the usual maturity of its ecosystem, Samsung will lose its exclusive differentiating factor at the top of the range. For the South Korean giant, 2026 will not just be about regaining first place, but about defending its identity in a market where the barrier between Android and iOS is increasingly defined by hardware of AI and less for pure specifications.