National chocolate companies are optimistic about the Christmas period, “one of the most relevant” for sales, and do not anticipate lowering prices because the value of cocoa remains at double the 2023 average.
“The outlook for this year is positive and we expect to grow compared to the previous year. The Christmas season continues to be one of the most relevant moments of the year for Arcádia, not only in terms of sales volume, but also due to the emotional connection that our products have with this season”, the administrator of the Arcádia group, Francisco Bastos, told the Lusa agency.
Also optimistic, the executive president (CEO) of Fábrica de Chocolates Casa Grande, in Vila Nova de Famalicão, has “excellent” prospects for Christmas, based on “positive factors” that “greatly induce consumer behavior” at this time.
“Despite the world being shaken and internally we are ending a very politicized period, there is a feeling of serenity. Employment is at very high levels and there is considerable social peace”, explains André Vieira de Castro, highlighting that the consumer, “feeling safe, is with his loved ones and socializes” and, “even alone, has the luxury of a few moments of indulgence”.
And if Casa Grande hopes that these “moments of indulgence” will be punctuated with one of its chocolates, Arcádia says it will continue to focus on demand “very focused on the company’s artisanal products, of high quality and with a strong Portuguese identity”, characteristics that “are highly valued at this time”.
Although this year they are less pressured by the cost of raw materials – the price of cocoa has fallen 45% since January, after two years marked by historic highs – neither company plans to reduce sales prices to the public.
“Despite the recent correction, the price of cocoa remains approximately double the average recorded in 2023, continuing to represent a relevant challenge for the entire industry”, highlights Francisco Bastos, whose family founded Arcádia in 1933, in the city of Porto.
Even so, the administrator highlights that this inversion “allowed a stabilization of sales prices to the public, avoiding the need for new additional increases in the short term”.
In this regard, Casa Grande reminds that cocoa was quoted in futures on the New York Stock Exchange at 2400 dollars/ton at the end of 2023, currently being around six thousand dollars per ton.
“In this period of time, producers were completely crushed on their margins, because selling prices did not rise in due proportion. For example, we increased our PVP by 10%”, highlights André Castro Vieira, adding that “for those who have seen increases of 400% in cocoa, it is easy to understand the survival trap that has been set”.
In the same vein, Arcádia states that from the beginning it absorbed “a significant part” of the impact of the rise in cocoa into its margin, not transferring the entire increase in raw material costs to consumers.
Describing the company’s performance this year as “positive”, “despite the challenging context at an international level”, Francisco Bastos highlights that it was possible to “maintain sustained growth throughout the year, supported by customer loyalty, the consistency of the offer and the reinforcement of the national presence”.
“Based on the performance recorded so far, we expect to end the year with growth of more than 6% compared to 2024”, he adds, although noting that the “strong relevance of the Christmas season” makes any predictions made now “premature”.
Also encouraged by the “optimistic behavior” felt by its customers, Casa Grande points out the “good stimulus” of the ‘private label’ (the company is one of the largest manufacturers of third-party brands in Portugal) and also of companies “that invest in products with personalized packaging to offer their teams and customers”.
“But there is a huge group of companies and individuals that only organize themselves in December… judging by the signs we have, we will have a long way to go until Christmas”, says André Castro Vieira.
After having chosen to discontinue some products after concluding that the price that customers need “is impossible to achieve with this cost of cocoa”, Casa Grande has focused on compensating for these volumes with the growth of its own brands Casa Grande and Not Guilty, expecting to end 2025 “with roughly the same turnover” of two million euros as last year.
Arcádia, which recently opened a new brand store in partnership with Casa Ermelinda Freitas, in Setúbal, has two new openings scheduled for December: a kiosk in the Ovar Retail Spot space and a store in the Vasco da Gama Shopping Center, in partnership with the Nescafé brand.
For 2026, two more locations have already been confirmed in partnership with Nescafé – a street store on Avenida 5 de Outubro, in Lisbon, scheduled to open in the first quarter, and a store in the Fórum Montijo shopping center, scheduled for the second quarter.