The most recent ICS/ISCTE survey for the Express and SIC places André Ventura and Henrique Gouveia e Melo at the front of the 2026 presidential race. The two candidates appear tied with 18 percent direct voting intention, before the distribution of undecided voters, and stand out as the names best positioned to reach the second round. Luís Marques Mendes appears close behind, with 16 percent, but within the margin of error, which leaves him technically tied with both.
When the 22 percent of undecided people are distributed, the admiral rises to 26 percent, Ventura to 25 and Marques Mendes to 23. The study also indicates that António José Seguro is far from the podium, with just 10 percent (14 percent after counting undecided voters). The candidate shows a loss of support, especially for Gouveia e Melo, which has grown more significantly among left-wing voters.
João Cotrim de Figueiredo does not exceed 3 percent in direct intention, while António Filipe, Catarina Martins, Jorge Pinto and the remaining candidates appear with residual values.
The poll also tested second-round scenarios: in none of them would André Ventura be elected, while Gouveia and Melo would win all direct confrontations. Marques Mendes is the only one to come close, reaching 31 percent in a duel with the admiral, who reaches 35 percent in this scenario.
The ICS/ISCTE study, with fieldwork by GfK Metris, is based on 807 face-to-face interviews carried out before the television debates, which started on November 17th.