The durable consumer goods sector is seeing its growth hampered by geopolitical and economic risks, such as the fall in equity markets and the volatility of raw materials, according to a report from credit insurance company Crédito y Caución.
The entity predicts that global sales will grow by just 1.8% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, a significant slowdown after the 5.8% recovery recorded in 2024. In Europe, the estimate points to growth of 3.8% in 2025 and practically stagnation in 2026 (0.1%).
The report identifies Austria, Sweden and France as the markets with the highest levels of credit risk. In France, the rise in unemployment has reduced family confidence and slowed consumption, leaving stocks high in the face of weak demand.
Trade tariffs and the resurgence of protectionism are highlighted as the main threats to the sector. Disruptions in supply chains and greater volatility in food prices commoditiesenergy and transport could put pressure on retail prices and condition purchasing decisions.
Crédito y Caución warns that the increase in operating costs could force retailers to review supply policies, look for new suppliers or transfer costs to consumers through price increases.
Smaller operators in developed markets face greater risk of insolvency, while online retailers continue to gain market share, putting pressure on traditional chains.
To remain competitive, traditional operators and small retailers will have to invest in additional services, expand their digital presence and improve technological capabilities — measures that require high investment in a context of tight margins, warns the report.