After a first semester with record amounts, military aid had already fallen drastically during the summer (military aid falls sharply despite NATO’s new initiative), a trend that continued in September and October, according to the latest update from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy’s Ukraine Support Monitor. At the current rate, the funds allocated for military aid are not enough to compensate for the lack of US support – While annual allocations averaged approximately €41.6 billion between 2022 and 2024 (including Europe, the US and other donors), only €32.5 billion has been allocated to date in 2025. To reach previous levels, an additional €9.1 billion would need to be allocated by the end of the year, which would require a monthly allocation rate more than double that observed in recent months.
“Based on data available up to October, Europe was unable to maintain the pace of the first half of 2025,” says Christoph Trebesch, director of Ukraine Support Monitor. “The recent slowdown makes it difficult for Europe to fully compensate for the absence of US military aid in 2025. If this slower pace continues in the remaining months, 2025 will become the year with the lowest level of new aid allocations to Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.”
Although Europe’s overall military support is declining, it varies significantly across major economies. France, Germany and the United Kingdom have increased their military allocations compared to the period 2022 to 2024: Berlin has almost tripled its average monthly allocations, while Paris and London have more than doubled theirs. Still, in relation to their 2021 GDP, the three countries remained well below the main Nordic donors: Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. To reach Nordic levels, Europe’s largest economies would need to substantially increase their contributions.
The contrast with Italy and Spain was even more pronounced: neither country increased its military budgets this year. Rome reduced its already low funding levels by 15% compared to the period 2022 to 2024, and Madrid recorded no new military aid, weakening Europe’s overall response.
“The increased funding from France, Germany and the United Kingdom is significant,” explains Taro Nishikawa, from Ukraine Support Monitor. “But even these three countries still lag behind the Nordic countries in relative terms. However, the reduction in support from Spain and Italy is a notable setback, reinforcing the importance of a more balanced distribution of burdens across Europe.”