Several economists and research firms support the most recent growth forecast from the government and the Ministry of Finance for the Portuguese economy this year, which points to 2%. They estimate values of 1.8% to 1.9%, incorporating the most recent data.
The CIP/ISEG barometer, the BPI research office, the Catholic University’s NECEP or the Moody’s rating agency join the main official institutions that make projections for Portugal, such as the European Commission (EC), International Monetary Fund (IMF) or Banco de Portugal (BdP), and point to a recovery in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of up to 1.9%, in real terms (discounting inflation), this year.
The barometer from CIP – Confederação Empresarial de Portugal / ISEG – Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, released this Monday, “anticipates the continuation of the positive performance of private consumption at the end of the year, as well as the reinforcement of the growth rate of public and private investment”.
However, forecasts “point to some slowdown in relation to the results of the third quarter”, but even so, the CIP/ISEG study “forecasts that the Portuguese economy will grow between 1.8% and 1.9% in 2025”.
“It will not be possible to grow at a reasonable pace without significant increases in productivity”, points out the general director of CIP, Rafael Alves Rocha, in a press release.
Tiago Pereira, economist at BPI Research, considers that the estimate released by the National Statistics Institute (INE), last Friday, for the third quarter, “accommodates BPI Research’s current forecast for real GDP growth for 2025 (1.8%)”.
“The quantitative economic indicators available for the fourth quarter are still scarce, but sentiment indicators suggest that economic agents remain confident about the development of activity in the coming months.”
The same analyst highlights “the result of improved sentiment in the manufacturing industry, with good prospects for production in the next three months and for trade”.
In the construction sector, “the improvement was marginal and in services it deteriorated, reflecting less positive prospects for demand in the next three months”.
As for consumers, “confidence deteriorated in November, reflecting greater uncertainty regarding the country’s economic situation and the ability to make important purchases over the next 12 months.”
However, “the outlook for 2026 is reasonably optimistic, with the economy expected to grow by around 2%.”
The factors driving the acceleration next year “are investment, which will be driven by the likely acceleration of European funds [onde está o PRR – Plano de Recuperação e Resiliência]which are entering their final year and due to the continued reduction in financing costs compared to those observed in recent years”, private consumption (by families) and “the expansionist budgetary policy included in the State Budget for 2026”, which will also be “a factor supporting domestic demand”, says BPI.
The rating agency Moody’s, which two weeks ago maintained Portugal’s sovereign credit rating at a good level (A3) and with a stable outlook, continues to believe that the economy will be able to sustain an expansion rate of 2% in real terms.
“Our stable outlook reflects the assessment that the risks to Portugal’s credit profile, at an A3 rating level, are balanced. Although political uncertainty has increased in recent years, with repeated early elections and parliamentary fragmentation, making policy formulation more complex, we hope that these internal changes will not significantly alter our outlook for robust economic growth of around 2% and a further reduction in the level of public debt”, says the Moody’s team that follows the Portuguese Republic.
The NECEP study center, at the Universidade Católica Portuguesa, states that “the central point of the economic growth estimate in 2025 was revised slightly upward (0.1 percentage points) to 1.8%, following the robust growth seen in the second quarter, as well as the estimate now advanced for the third quarter”. “For 2026 and 2027, the previous forecasts of 2% and 2.2%, respectively, remained.”
For the end of 2025, the CIP and ISEG study now released adds that “it foresees the continuation of a positive performance in private consumption, as well as the reinforcement of the growth rate of public and private investment”, but warns that “on the external side the most relevant risks for the economy remain”, that “moderating expectations for the fourth quarter is also the deterioration in the valuations of companies in the manufacturing industry and the services sector”.
The Bank of Portugal estimates (October economic bulletin) that the Portuguese economy will grow 1.9% this year. The IMF (October), ditto. The European Commission (November forecast) predicts 1.9%.