From 2023, Xi Jinping has replaced more than twenty high-ranking officers of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). In just over three years, he has removed three of the six members of the Central Military Commission (CMC) from their positions and, in recent days, two others have seen their names appear in state news programs linked to corruption and contempt for the president’s authority. In other words, there will soon be five out of six.
The last in the long list are Liu Zhenlithe chief of operations of the EPL, and, above all, Zhang Youxiaconsidered Xi’s most important general and right-hand man in the military establishment. In fact, both are sons of civil war heroes and their careers have run parallel for decades: in 2012, Xi rose to the top of the Chinese Communist Party a year after Zhang was named general. Five years later, he was already part of the PCC politburo and Xi granted him one of the vice presidencies of the CMC.
The entity of the purge has hardly any parallel in the recent history of China and probably has to go back to the turbulent times of Mao Zedong to find something similar.
Although the reason for these investigations has not been officially explained, the armed forces newspaper pointed out that Zhang had “trampled” on Xi’s authority and accused him of undermining his policies. In the absence of concrete evidence, as is logical, the rumors have exploded.
An attempted coup d’état?
One of the most widespread is that Zhang was trying to form a kind of cohort outside of Xi with his own group of faithful. Whether the idea was that, at a given moment, the military would overthrow the political leader or simply prepare to take control of the country when he left office—Xi will turn 73 in June and has been leader of the party for thirteen years—it is not entirely clear.
On social networks and forums linked to the opposition, as reported Reuters y Bloombergthere is talk of shootouts between Zhang’s men and Xi’s men and of a real attempted coup d’état that would have ended with more than three thousand people arrested.
However, there is no evidence of this and it certainly seems unlikely and highly unrealistic that Zhang would want to lead a coup against such an established and supported president.
Another hypothesis, pointed out by Wall Street Journalis that Zhang was leaking information about the Chinese nuclear program.
Although the American newspaper cites an official report that has not yet been published and appeals to very reliable internal sources, the truth is that it also seems difficult to believe. Zhang was too important a man in the party and army hierarchy for his possible espionage to go unnoticed.
Zhang Youxia, the purged general.
Reuters
The accusation of corruption seems more sensible. Specifically, the WSJ points to the rise of Li Shangfuone of Zhang’s dolphins and also fallen from grace.
Apparently, Zhang would have defended his inclusion in the army command center and his subsequent appointment as Minister of National Defense in exchange for money.
Li came to office in March 2023 and was replaced just seven months later, also losing his status as State Councilor.
Taiwan in the background
The curious thing is that Xi did nothing then against Zhang and does it now. He probably considers that it is time to hit the table and assert his authority, something he does from time to time so that no one within the party forgets that he is the one in charge.
He already did it publicly in the 20th Congress, when he humiliated the former president Hu Jintaoalso allegedly involved in corruption matters.
All of these moves come at a particularly decisive moment in the future of China and its military. Everything indicates that, in 2027, Xi Jinping could order military “reunification” with Taiwan, that is, the invasion and subsequent annexation of the island.
It is the date that Xi himself suggested at the aforementioned 2022 Congress and also coincides with the centenary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. Considering that the United States is busy with other things right now, the chances of an attack increase.
Perhaps that’s why Xi wants young blood at the helm of the army and new ideas. Next year, the PLA may face the biggest challenge in its recent history – let’s not rule out Xi waiting for Taiwan’s presidential elections in 2028 – and the leader may simply not consider that Zhang was the right man for that challenge.
We will have to wait, in any case, for more clarity from official sources. If that is possible.