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What counts as a White Christmas?
According to AccuWeather, a white Christmas officially requires at least one inch of snow on the ground on December 25. That total can include fresh snowfall on Christmas Day or snow that has remained from earlier storms. As forecasts tighten closer to the holiday, meteorologists now expect fewer states to meet that threshold.
This updated outlook arrives weeks after the Old Farmer’s Almanac initially projected broader snow chances across the Plains, Texas, the Midwest, the Northeast, and parts of the mid-Atlantic. However, warming trends have since altered the picture, reported Newsweek.
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Which states are most likely to see snow?
AccuWeather’s revised forecast points to a strong likelihood of a white Christmas in several western, northern, and northeastern states. These include California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.
“Dreaming of a white Christmas? It’s a guarantee in the Rockies and near the Great Lakes, but hopes for snow in the central and eastern U.S. will hinge on a storm moving through just before the holidays,” AccuWeather posted on X on Thursday.
The central and northern Rockies remain the most reliable region. Higher elevations stretching from Montana and Wyoming through Utah and Colorado are described as “solidly locked in” for snow, with surrounding areas holding a 40–75% chance of snow on the ground, reported Newsweek.
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Will warm temperatures melt existing snow?
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of above-average temperatures across much of the country over Christmas. The Plains, the South, and large portions of the Midwest are expected to be the warmest, with many of those areas also seeing below-average precipitation.
AccuWeather lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok said the scale of the warmth stands out. “It will be near 70 in St. Louis on Christmas,” he told Newsweek. “There’s no snow going to be left anywhere near the St. Louis area.” He added that snow currently on the ground in Springfield is also expected to disappear before the holiday.
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Although snow did fall across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic between December 13 and 14, Pastelok said melting is likely as temperatures rise in the days leading up to Christmas.
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Could a last-minute storm change things?
Some regions may still be watching the skies closely. Pastelok noted that snow could fall on Christmas Day in parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Intermountain West.
“All eyes will be on a storm between December 23-25,” he said. “The track could determine a late surge for some snow.”
AccuWeather also noted that states along the southern and central U.S., as well as parts of the Northeastern coast, currently have the lowest odds of a white Christmas.
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What does holiday travel weather look like?
Weather conditions could complicate travel, particularly in the West. On Christmas Eve, heavy rain is expected across California, including the Los Angeles Basin, San Diego, and the Bay Area, with flash flooding possible near wildfire-burned areas. Dangerous travel conditions are anticipated along Interstate 80 through the Sierra Nevada, as per a report.
On Christmas Day, another Pacific storm may bring more heavy rain, strong winds, and mountain snow to the West. Meanwhile, parts of the Midwest and Northeast could see light rain during the day, with freezing rain, sleet, or snow possible by evening in colder areas of upstate New York and northern New England, as per a report by The Weather Channel.
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FAQs
Which areas are the safest bet for a white Christmas?
The Rockies and areas near the Great Lakes have the highest chances.
Why are fewer states seeing snow this year?
Above-average temperatures are expected across much of the U.S., melting existing snow.