On the night of Wednesday to Thursday, the Pentagon announced the sale of the largest arms package in the history of the relationship between Taiwan and the United States. With a total cost more than 11 billion dollarsexceeds the previous mark, established at 8,000 million during the first Trump Administration.
Package Included anti-tank defenses, 82 HIMARS long-range missiles and 60 howitzers latest generation. The objective is for China to think twice before starting an offensive against the island, something that could happen in the short or medium term.
The decision is shocking because of the moment in which it occurs, just two weeks after the White House made public its national security strategy in which, for the first time in a long time, China is not treated as a military rivalbut simply as an economic competitor.
It is to be understood that, apart from the weapons themselves, they will never be enough to deter China from an invasion if Xi Jinping proposes it, the United States wants to send a message to Beijing: we are willing to do anything to guarantee the independence of the island of Formosa.
Just when the Trump Administration seems to be moving away from international conflicts and intends to turn everything into a trade negotiation, the gesture is striking and necessary: China is going through its own international golden age, with commercial control of a good part of land and sea transport around the world, leading exports and modernizing by leaps and bounds.
As if that were not enough, he has Russia’s oil almost at his disposal in exchange for a certain diplomatic umbrella.
The importance of drones in an asymmetric conflict
Hence the response did not take long to arrive. Beijing considers Taiwan to be its territory, that is, there are not two Chinas as such, but only one China with two different governments… for now. The spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Guo Jiakunstated this Thursday that Taiwan was “wasting the money that its people earn with effort on weapons” and blamed the Taipei government for wanting to “turn the island into a tinderbox.”
The HIMARS have enough range to reach the Chinese coast, although it is difficult to think that, in a one-on-one confrontation, the Taiwanese army has a real chance of success. Another thing would be in a skirmish war, hence Taiwan is manufacturing and purchasing drones as its main defense and attack weapon.
Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te attends the annual coast guard exercise in Kaohsiung.
Reuters
The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the importance of this type of weapon and, given China’s numerical and technological superiority, Taiwan could resort to unconventional war maneuvers that, at a minimum, delay the invasion and allow its allies to react in time.
And that is precisely where the United States comes in. The White House has never formally assured that it is willing to intervene militarily in defense of Taiwan, even though it has let it slip many times.
This ambiguity emboldens Xi Jinping and the CCP leadership, who are convinced that, when the time comes, no one will come to the rescue of their neighbors: not the United States, not Japan, not Australia. Facing a country with so many resources of all kinds and with nuclear weapons in its chamber seems like suicide.
With our sights set on 2027
In that sense, Beijing wanted to use military muscle to accompany its rhetorical condemnations. “China will take firm and vigorous measures to safeguard its national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity,” the Foreign Ministry spokesperson said.
In a usual twist of narratives, the CCP considers that it is the independence of Taiwan that is intended to be achieved “by force” and that the natural thing would be the union of what is already, for them, one.
In other words, if an invasion attempt were to occur, Beijing would not consider it aggression and, therefore, would not be violating, in its opinion, any international law. He would simply be putting down an insurrection if he sees the situation getting out of hand.
“The sale of arms sends a very wrong message to the independentists and we demand that the United States stop sales and accept the principle of one China,” Jiakun concluded.
Last March, the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense estimated that the Chinese invasion will probably take place in 2027, based on calculations from US intelligence. This is the year that marks the centenary of the Chinese Communist Party and the date set by Xi Jinping himself for his army to begin to go from a “modern force” to a “world-class force.”
Since then, defense spending has skyrocketed, as have violations of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone and Chinese navy “exercises” off the Taiwanese coast.