In an era in which Africa asserts itself in the G20 and the South Atlantic gains geopolitical centrality, Mozambique emerges as a decisive laboratory for the energy transition. The recent Summit between the European Union and the African Union, held in Luanda, reinforced the two blocs’ commitment to a renewed partnership to face global challenges such as sustainable development, peace, security and the energy transition. President Lula’s visit to the continent further highlighted the growing importance of this region on the global economic and geopolitical scene. It is in this context of profound transformations that Mozambique stands out, facing dilemmas that deserve particular attention.
It was at this precise moment that I traveled to the country, where I closely observed the dynamics of an economy that combines a promising cycle, driven by large natural gas projects, with a political moment of clear change. Between the gas bonanza and the strangulation of debt, between the promise of growth and the risk of enclave, Mozambique is gambling on its future. The country faces serious structural challenges: short-term public debt that strangles the production circuit, treasury difficulties that penalize investment and employment, and financial fragility that threatens to transform energy wealth into social frustration. Without robust solutions, even the largest projects risk falling short of their transformative potential.
Investments in liquefied natural gas in the North project revenues capable of sustaining growth of more than 12% per year for several years. But without transparency and regulation mechanisms, this wealth can intensify historical vulnerabilities: dependence on a single sector, exposure to external shocks and income capture by restricted elites.
Daniel Chapo’s ascension to the Presidency represents a clear break with Filipe Nyusi’s previous governments. His mandate aims to stand out for the fight against corruption, professionalism in public service and the rejuvenation of government staff. However, these intentions will only have an impact if accompanied by profound reforms that cover everything from taxation to the regulation of the extractive sector.
Faced with this reality, experts point to the need for a balanced financial boost, estimated at around five billion euros, guided by rigor and management oriented towards tangible results. Part of this amount should stabilize the financial flows of the State and companies; the remainder must finance productive infrastructure, technical training and the strengthening of micro and small companies integrated in local chains. For this strategy to translate into inclusive development, it is essential to advance with tangible and structuring measures: fiscal digitalization to reduce evasion and increase the capacity to capture revenue, technical training programs that integrate young people and workers in production chains linked to gas and diversified sectors, creation of a sovereign wealth fund capable of transparently and intergenerationally managing extraordinary revenues, establishment of a development bank aimed at financing productive projects and economic diversification, implementation of a digital currency that increases financial inclusion and reduce transaction costs, and creation of a channel dedicated to supporting foreign direct investment, simplifying processes and ensuring regulatory predictability.
These measures, combined with administrative modernization based on the simplicity of processes, digitalization and regulatory stability, can transform the energy bonanza into a driver of diversified and sustainable development. The success of any program will depend on Mozambique’s ability to ensure transparency, accountability and efficient supervision of public resources. Institutional strengthening and social mechanisms are indispensable to ensure that wealth benefits the majority of citizens. Portugal and the European Union have a unique opportunity here: not just to finance, but to transfer knowledge and institutionality. Cultural and linguistic affinity, combined with Portuguese experience in public management, are strategic advantages to be mobilized.
Mozambique is faced with a historic choice: transform energy wealth into a driver of inclusive development or repeat the cycle of dependence and frustration. The country today has the possibility of asserting itself as an example of responsible governance and autonomous growth, capable of projecting stability and prosperity for future generations. The time of decision is not the distant future, it is the immediate present. What is done now will define whether Mozambique will be just another territory of unfulfilled promises or an exemplary case of national affirmation and African leadership in the gas era.
Strategy, Security and Defense Analyst