Slowing inflation, few cuts in interest rates and a lot of uncertainty, starting in the sector that led valuations in the last 12 months. These are the perspectives outlined by the brokerage firm XTB, looking to 2026.
In an event aimed at the media held this Tuesday, December 16th, analysts analyzed what happened in 2025 and what could be coming in 2026, in the economy and in the markets.
It is known that technology companies led investments in 2025, with a particular focus on Artificial Intelligence (AI). Now, these were also the ones that appreciated the most, particularly on the New York Stock Exchange, due to the potential that investors believe could emerge.
This place, The question has arisen in the markets as to whether these will be in a ‘bubble’that is, with a much higher market capitalization than they deserve, based on the products and services they have already launched or are developing. One of the factors in the spotlight is the fact that some of the largest companies in the sector have positive net debtmeaning that the amount owed is greater than the valuation of the assets they hold.
But can we talk about the existence of a bubble in AI? As for the “companies that produce cables, cooling systems, graphics cards and data centersno”, guarantees Vítor Madeira, market analyst at XTB. This is because we are talking about companies with much smaller investments.
On the other hand, companies that invest most in technologies associated with AI may take this risk, but “only the future will tell”. These are the cases of companies like Microsoft, Google (Alphabet), Amazon, Meta, and OpenAIfor example, who are investing billions of dollars in AI.
Now, from his perspective, the question is not whether AI allows increases in productivity, because that “has been proven”. The question is whether “the investments will yield returns”through profits and dividends. In other words, “if this return does not reach shareholders, someone will be penalized.”
Indices falling due to fear of the markets?
Several listed companies and Wall Street indexes were penalized, in recent days, due to fears that seem to be associated with a possible bubble scenario. Looking at the Tech Index Nasdaq, there was a drop of 2.5% since the close of the session on Thursday.
At the same time, the Nvidia went further, dropping 4% in the same period. At the center of the ‘volcano’, however, is the Oraclewhose capitalization suffered a 17% cutassociated precisely with fears about the company’s debt.
“The recent drops in indices… is the market predicting this [a existência de uma bolha]?” If investors really come to the conclusion that this is a real scenario, we should see a more aggressive penalty in technology, but one that extends to other sectors. “The market, when it falls, drags everything down”, warns Vítor Madeira.
In any case, it will be necessary to wait to find out the next developments. What is certain is that next year will be decisive and uncertainty defines the feeling.
Interest rates to fall (but little) in 2026
The analyst highlights the Federal Reserve improvements regarding economic growth prospects. The Fed previously forecast 1.6% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, while the most recent expectations, released last week, point to 1.7% and 2.3%, respectively.
Still regarding the Fedmarkets expect one to two cuts (from 25 basis points) in interest rates of reference next year, although this scenario may change, depending on Donald Trump’s choice for the position of president of that organization. Remember that Jerome Powell’s term ends in May of next year.
In the case of the ECB, there should be a single cut. This expectation takes into account the perspective that employment will “remain strong” in the medium and long term. “The worst that could happen was for unemployment to rise”, in a context of high inflation and high interest rates, because that would be the origin of a crisis.