Cocoa prices have fallen 45% since January, after two years marked by historic highs, a reduction that was due to more favorable harvest projections in Côte d’Ivoire and a decrease in speculative activity.
Still, according to Coface, “despite the correction, prices remain twice above the average recorded between 2012 and 2022 (2,525 dollars – around 2,170 euros – per ton)”, says the insurer in a statement.
Simon Lacoume, an economist specializing in the sector, states, quoted in a statement, that “after two years of tension, the current correction is bringing cocoa prices back to more rational levels”.
It is, however, “premature to talk about normalization, since structural weaknesses and a high geographic concentration of cocoa bean production persist”.
Even with the volatility, chocolate products continue to have a ‘premium’ position, notes Coface, with “global demand for chocolate maintaining a growth trajectory, driven by Asia and the ‘premium’ segments [de luxo]”.
“Ethical, organic and low-sugar products are seeing increasing adoption, such as certified cocoa (Fairtrade, Rainforest Alliance)”, he points out.