AS tensions between historic foes China and Japan explode over Taiwan, Beijing has warned the world that it is ready for war.
Amid an escalating war of words sparked by Tokyo’s comments on Taiwan, experts reveal how knife-edge relations could spiral into a direct military confrontation with one wrong move.
The furious row between Asia’s two biggest economies has erupted over Taiwan, the self-governing island that China says must come under its rule.
Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi infuriated Beijing by saying Tokyo could respond militarily if China were to try to seize control of Taiwan.
Beijing, which has threatened to use force to take control of the island, responded furiously to Takaichi’s remarks.
It summoned Tokyo’s ambassador and advised Chinese citizens against travelling to Japan.
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Then, the row escalated after Tokyo said it would push ahead with the planned deployment of missiles on Yonaguni, an island close to Taiwan.
China said the plan was a “deliberate attempt to create regional tension and provoke military confrontation”.
And it warned Japan will have to pay a “painful price” if it steps out of line over Taiwan.
Now, experts have warned that the war of words marks a “very dangerous” situation in the region.
Ashok Swain, professor of peace and security at Uppsala University, told The Sun: “This is not good for the regional and the global security situation.”
While Prof Swain thinks a full-scale war between the two nations remains unlikely, the situation is “very sensitive” – and one wrong move could spark an escalation.
He said: “Of course, it has the possibility.
“When you have these kinds of escalations with all kinds of political rhetoric going on, both countries are in a situation of threatening each other. I think it’s a very sensitive time.”
Military analyst Philip Ingram said Japan has been ramping up its military capability in a bid to project power in the region.
He said: “It’s clear with the new Japanese PM, she has become much more robust, much stronger, and feels in a much stronger position when it comes to regional politics.
“She is standing up to China. A very brave move.
“Japan is exercising a little bit more of its national muscle, something it hasn’t really done since the end of the Second World War.
“And it’s clear that tensions between Japan and China are growing, hence why Japan is effectively poking the Chinese dragon by forward-deploying military capability.”
Prof Swain revealed the three triggers that both Beijing and Tokyo would see as red lines.
A tiny, unforeseen incident can spark all-out war when tensions are high, he explained.
These types of incidents, including a fighter jet clash or a maritime collision that creates a “spot of military activities”.
And this could be difficult for the political leadership to contain before it spirals into the theatre of war.
By the time political leaders intervene, such situations may have already sparked an exchange of fire.
This makes de-escalation far more difficult.
Prof Swain said: “It could be a massive miscommunication, or an accident, like a pilot goes rogue, or maybe a naval confrontation at sea.
“These accidents can likely result in military actions by both nations that could go out of control.”
He pointed to the Marco Polo Bridge Incident in 1937 – widely considered the start of the Second Sino-Japanese War.
It began with an accidental confrontation involving a missing Japanese soldier.
Misunderstanding a military manoeuvre in a high-tension environment can also lead to a disproportionate reaction, Prof Swain warned.
If any accident happens when tensions are high already, chances of misunderstandings increase
Professor Ashok Swain
With both China and Japan engaged in a heated war of words, the risk of a misjudgment is heightened.
Prof Swain said: “If any accident happens when tensions are high already, chances of misunderstandings increase.”
For China, another “red line” would be Japan deploying weapons on an island near Taiwan.
While the talk of missile deployment is more or less just hot air, Prof Swain says, weapons near or on Taiwanese soil would force a “severe” and immediate military response from China.
He said: “Japan actually bringing missiles to Taiwan would take it a bit notch forward and lead to a military confrontation. It is a red line for Beijing, and it will definitely react severely.”
Tokyo previously announced plans to deploy the Type 03 Medium-Range Surface-to-Air Guided Missile, Japan’s Yonagun, to defend the island against incoming air-to-ground missiles and aircraft.
These missiles are capable of intercepting fighter jets and incoming ballistic missiles, according to Japanese news outlets.
And last week, Japanese defence minister Shinjiro Koizumi said his country was pressing on with plans to deploy missiles on Yonaguni island to “lower the chance of an armed attack”.
It’s clear that tensions between Japan and China are growing, hence why Japan is effectively poking the Chinese dragon by forward-deploying military capability
Philip Ingram
The island is the closest point between Japan and Taiwan – sitting just 67 miles away.
Encouraged by the US, Japan has in recent years embarked on a historic military build-up to counter Beijing’s growing might and assertiveness in the region.
Taiwan said Japan’s strengthening of military facilities on Yonaguni “helps maintain security in the Taiwan Strait”.
Since then, China has issued military threats, cancelled flights between the two countries, and asked tourists to stay away.
Beijing also aired a propaganda video produced by the People’s Liberation Army titled “If war breaks out today, this is my response”.
China claims democratic Taiwan as part of its territory and has threatened to use force to bring the self-ruled island under its control.
While Donald Trump has not directly waded into the dispute between Japan and China over Taiwan, his ambassador to Japan, George Glass, has said the US supports Tokyo in the face of China’s “coercion”.
The US will be the first country to be drawn into a war because of its ironclad security commitment to Tokyo.
Why does China want to invade Taiwan?
TAIWAN insists it is an independent nation after splitting from mainland China amid civil war in 1949.
But China claims Taiwan remains a part of its territory with which it must eventually be reunified – and has not ruled out the use of force to take the island and place it under Beijing’s control.
The island, which is roughly 100 miles from the coast of south-east China, sees itself as distinct from the Chinese mainland, with its own constitution and democratically-elected leaders.
Taiwan sits in the so-called “first island chain”, which includes a list of US-friendly territories that are crucial to Washington’s foreign policy in the region.
This also puts it in an ideal situation to slow a Chinese attack on the West.
And with tensions between the two nations high, Taiwan is likely to aid China’s enemy if it means keeping its independence.
Taiwan’s economy is another factor in China’s desperation to reclaim the land.
If China takes the island, it could be freer to project power in the western Pacific and rival the US, thanks to much of the world’s electronics being made in Taiwan.
This would allow Beijing to have control over an industry that drives the global economy.
China insists that its intentions are peaceful, but President Xi Jinping has also used threats towards the small island nation
This is because of the US-Japan Security Treaty, which requires Washington to commit to defending Tokyo during military confrontations.
Meanwhile, the US maintains major military facilities and forces on Japanese soil.
If the Chinese attacks target these bases, it’s likely the US will be drawn into the conflict.
While Nato does not maintain its Article 5 mutual defence pact in the Asia-Pacific region, direct US involvement would likely see Western allies throw their support behind the US – and by extension Japan.
Meanwhile, it’s thought Russia would join its Chinese ally in a war.
While Russia and China do not have any formal Nato-style mutual defence agreement, they have a deep strategic relationship that will see Moscow help defend China.
Tyrant Vladimir Putin could also take the opportunity to launch attacks on Europe to divide Nato’s resources while Beijing continues to fight on the main front.
And the regime of Iran and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un could throw their weight behind the Russia-China alliance.