Netanyahu drags Trump toward second strike on Iran to divert attention from second phase of Gaza plan

It is impossible to underestimate the importance of Iran in the entire diplomatic and military machinery of the Middle East. Its expansionist vocation and its confrontations with the Sunni Arab world, with militias and terrorist groups spread across Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, has been, paradoxically, key to uniting Israel and the United States with traditionally hostile countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain or Saudi Arabia itself, which suffered in 2019 the only attack in its history after the bombing of some oil platforms using Iranian drones.

The moment, furthermore, seems to be propitious to finish shoring up these relations and, in turn, punish the ayatollah regime. On the one hand, the situation in Yemen is separating Qatar, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia, something that the United States cannot afford since we are talking about its three largest allies in the area. Searching for a common enemy and bringing them together around a war objective can ease tensions between the three countries… and that, in turn, weaken the Houthis, controlled precisely by Iran.

Furthermore, the internal situation in Iran itself is once again complicated for the regime. After violently repressing the various student demonstrations in favor of the most basic human rights in 2022 and 2023, the streets of the Persian State are once again filling with young Protestants. The difference with respect to what happened in previous years is that the situation of the current Government is much weaker, both economically and purely militarily.

The complex Trump-Netanyahu relationship

Even so, and knowing that Trump has always had Iran in his sights, since his first term, the United States prefers to be cautious. The president himself conceded in the press conference after the meeting with Netanyahu that his country would launch a new attack if it were proven that Iran was indeed redoing its nuclear program. Now, the very use of the conditional seems to indicate that, at this time, US intelligence does not have it all.

It is not the first time that Netanyahu appears at Mar-a-Lago or the White House with outdated documents to try to convince Trump of the urgent need for an attack. The relationship between these two political veterans is a reflection of their character: continuous ups and downs, moments of euphoria and hatred, resentments and mistrust… always with the knowledge that they need each other much more than they would probably like.

Nor can it be a coincidence that this sudden attempt by Netanyahu to divert American attention comes just after Trump insisted on the convenience of moving on to the second phase of the twenty-point plan signed by representatives of Israel and Hamas on October 9 in the Egyptian town of Sharm el-Sheikh. A signing in which the Israeli prime minister or the leaders of the terrorist organization were not present.

Objective: begin the reconstruction of Gaza

Although it is a balanced plan that makes a lot of sense, the truth is that neither party has ever had the slightest interest in fulfilling it in its entirety. The first phase – handing over hostages in exchange for a ceasefire – suited both Israel and the terrorists. The return home of the kidnapped people on October 7, 2023 could be sold as a diplomatic success for Netanyahu at a time of widespread internal opposition. In turn, the ceasefire allowed Hamas to reorganize its ranks and take back the reins of repression against Gazans.

Another very different thing is the second phase, where both have to give in. From the outset, Hamas has to hand over its weapons and step aside, something we can assume it will not do willingly. Instead, Gaza would be governed by an international coalition headed by an Arab figure with the support of a multinational force that would be dedicated to bringing order and allowing the reconstruction of the Strip, which is what Trump is really interested in.

The American president is not a moralist. We would say, rather, that it is quite the opposite. What interests him about Gaza, and he made it clear as soon as he arrived at the White House for the second time, is its enormous urban potential. The pie that can be shared between the United States and the Arab countries is tremendous, to the point that Trump has already hinted that reconstruction could begin even before Hamas disappears from the Strip, something unrealistic.

Netanyahu’s problems with Palestinian prosperity

What problem does Israel have with all this? Netanyahu has always opposed the two-state solution that Trump’s own plan defends as a medium-long-term end. In his opinion, everything that brings well-being to the Palestinians can feed their dreams of independence and strengthen the union between that disconnected Gaza and the West Bank still controlled by the old man. Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority.

For this reason, the current Israeli prime minister has always maintained reasonable relations with Qatar, which has led to part of his entourage being judicially investigated for the so-called Catargate, the scandal for which at least two Qatari lobbies would have placed their members in the prime minister’s office. Netanyahu himself acknowledged at the time that he had turned a blind eye to Qatar’s payments to Hamas because he understood that this weakened the Palestinian Authority.

In this context, it is normal that, faced with Trump’s demands, he prefers to change the subject. If both the United States and its Arab partners become demanding with the move to a second phase that is already delayed, Netanyahu and his government coalition will find themselves between a rock and a hard place a few months before the next electoral call. Just the withdrawal of troops from the field could already be considered a defeat. Anything that saves time, in that sense, benefits you. And Bibi is a master of confusion and double play.