Traders pared rate-cut bets, pricing in under 15% odds for a Federal Reserve move next month. March odds split more evenly. No big economic data or earnings hit the wires in this holiday-shortened week, leaving sentiment driven by year-end positioning and global cues. Precious metals stole the show, with gold (GC=F) and silver (SI=F) futures hitting fresh records amid dollar weakness (DX=F at multi-month lows) and rising geopolitical risks.
Volume stayed light, but active stocks lit up screens. Sidus Space (SIDU) surged 24.32% to $2.73 on 117 million shares, topping gainers. Nvidia (NVDA) rose 1.29% to $191.04 amid AI buzz. Tesla (TSLA) bucked the tape, down 1.55% to $477.86.
Why the Dow Jones slipped today despite a strong 2025 rally
The Dow’s decline reflected classic post-holiday behavior rather than a fundamental shock. Blue-chip stocks that led recent gains saw light profit-taking as investors locked in returns before year-end. For context, the S&P 500 is still up about 18% in 2025, marking one of its strongest multi-year runs in decades. The Nasdaq has climbed more than 20% this year, even after briefly entering a bear market earlier following tariff announcements from President Donald Trump in April.
With traders pricing in less than a 15% chance of an interest rate cut in January, the market is adjusting to a “higher for longer” monetary environment as it enters the final stretch of 2025.
Artificial intelligence remains the primary engine for market growth, even during quiet holiday sessions. Nvidia (NVDA) captured headlines again on Friday, gaining 1.29% to reach $191.04. The move followed a major strategic clarification regarding its relationship with AI chip startup Groq. While initial rumors suggested a $20 billion acquisition, Nvidia confirmed a non-exclusive licensing deal for Groq’s Language Processing Unit (LPU) technology.
Nvidia has also integrated Groq’s top leadership, including founder Jonathan Ross, into its ranks to scale this new architecture. This deal is significant because Groq’s LPUs utilize on-chip SRAM memory, which can process certain AI workloads faster than traditional GPUs that rely on external high-bandwidth memory. While analysts from DA Davidson suggest Groq’s current tech is niche, the move allows Nvidia to diversify its hardware portfolio and maintain its dominance over competitors like Google. This strategic positioning has helped Nvidia maintain its 52-week upward trajectory, staying well above its yearly low of $86.62.A major shift in the industrial sector is pressuring legacy automakers as 2025 comes to a close. Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis are currently recalibrating their long-term strategies after a significant “bottoming out” of electric vehicle (EV) demand. This trend was accelerated by the expiration of federal EV tax credits in the third quarter and the rolling back of fuel economy standards earlier this month. The policy shifts have allowed gas-powered vehicles to regain a more prominent role in production cycles.
The ripple effects are visible in stock performance. Tesla (TSLA) fell 1.55% on Friday to $477.86, reflecting the broader cooling of the EV sector. Across the Atlantic, the European Union’s decision to scrap its 2025 EV mandate has provided a temporary reprieve for German manufacturers, but U.S. markets remain cautious. Investors are concerned that by pulling back on EV investments now, the “Big Three” might face a competitive disadvantage if global demand for sustainable transport rebounds in the coming years.
Retail Gains and Precious Metals Reach New Records
In the retail sector, Target (TGT) emerged as a bright spot, rising 1.70% to $98.17. The jump follows reports that activist investor Toms Capital Investment Management (TCIM) has built a significant stake in the company. TCIM is known for forcing operational changes at major firms, and investors hope this intervention will reverse Target’s 26% decline in 2025. With a new CEO transition scheduled for February, the retailer is under intense pressure to solve its ongoing sales slump and streamline its cost structure.
While stocks faced minor selling pressure, the commodities market saw intense buying activity. Gold and silver futures surged to fresh record highs on Friday. Gold futures for February delivery surged to a new lifetime high, briefly touching $4,561.40 per ounce before stabilizing around the $4,545 mark. This represents a staggering 70% annual gain, the largest since 1979.
Silver has emerged as the standout performer of 2025, with prices breaching the $75 per ounce milestone for the first time in history. On Friday, silver futures for March delivery jumped 4% to reach a fresh peak of $75.49 per ounce. This rally marks a 158% year-to-date increase, significantly outperforming gold. The surge is attributed to a “structural deficit” in supply coupled with massive industrial demand, as silver was recently classified as a U.S. critical mineral.
This “torrid rally” in precious metals is being fueled by persistent geopolitical tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar. As the dollar index (DXY) softens, investors are flocking to safe-haven assets to hedge against uncertainty. This divergence—where stocks remain near record highs while gold hits new peaks—suggests a market that is optimistic about growth but deeply wary of underlying global risks.