The weight of public administration contingent liabilities in 2024 was 6.7% of GDP, according to the report “Position and evolution of public administration contingent liabilities” by the Public Finance Council (CFP).
This is the first systematic analysis dedicated to the topic which, based on Eurostat’s harmonized classification, examines the evolution, composition and risks of these responsibilities.
The value represents a significant reduction compared to the peak of 12.6% of GDP in 2020, attributed to economic normalization and the closure of COVID-19 credit lines, but the aggregate decline does not cancel out relevant exposures in specific items, namely guarantees and public-private partnerships (PPP), which require close monitoring.
Public administration guarantees stood at 3.1% of GDP in 2024, compared to 6.4% in 2020.
However, in monetary terms the exposure remains high: at the end of 2024 the Mutual Counterguarantee Fund (FCGM) had an outstanding portfolio of more than 3.5 billion euros, the State assumed notable responsibilities related to the financing of the Autonomous Region of Madeira (2.9 billion euros) and guarantees to the FCGM in the order of 1.2 billion euros, and other policy instruments, such as support official export, add exposure to the set of contingencies, according to the report.
PPPs, concentrated mainly in the road sector, represented 1.2% of GDP in 2024 (1.4% in 2023) and, although the Ministry of Finance’s forecasts for partnerships currently in force point to a gradual reduction in liabilities after 2026 and to a positive net impact on public accounts only from 2053 onwards, the CFP highlights the materiality and concentration of this risk, remembering that in 2023 Portugal had the highest weight of contingent liabilities associated with PPP in the European Union as a percentage of GDP, even though, in aggregate, it is among the countries with the lowest contingent liabilities in the EU.
In relation to the debt of non-financial non-reclassified public entities (EPNR), this stood at 2.2% of GDP in 2024, well below the maximum of 9.8% recorded in 2009, reflecting a change in the composition of debt — less recourse to bank and external financing — and increasing financial discipline resulting from business restructuring processes.
Among the risks that may result in calls on contingencies, the CFP identifies disputes and requests for Financial Balance Replacement in PPPs valued at 1,754 million euros (October 2025), the possible extension of COVID-19 responsibilities until 2027/28 and the expansion of new guarantees under the InvestEU program and other lines implemented by Banco Português de Fomento.
Given this situation, and despite the favorable evolution of aggregate indicators, the CFP warns that “the high and growing level of some responsibilities – especially guarantees and PPP – requires continuous monitoring” and recommends the systematic use of information reported to the Ministry of Finance and timely, comprehensive and integrated monitoring to reinforce risk management and the resilience of public finances.