The president of Ukraine, Volodímir Zelenskijust sent this Thursday night an alternative peace proposal to the one the United States negotiated with Vladimir Putin several weeks ago. At the time of writing these lines, information in this regard is still limited. It is known, however, that there are new developments in the part of the territorial transfers demanded by the Kremlin. Zelensky does not contemplate them. That is to say: Ukraine could accept the loss of what the Russians have already taken, but not give up anything additional.
Likewise, Zelensky wanted to take the opportunity to respond to the accusation launched this Tuesday by Donald Trump during an interview with the magazine Politico. “They say they are a democracy but there comes a point where it is no longer one,” said the American leader while speaking with the journalist. Dasha Burns.
It was a reference to the absence of elections in the Slavic country. “Ukraine is ready to hold elections,” Zelensky replied. The Ukrainian leader then offered a period of between two and three months as long as, of course, the United States and European countries guarantee the necessary conditions so that they can organize with guarantees.
It should be remembered that Ukraine held its last general elections in March 2019. An election that Zelensky won with 75% of the votes (more than 13.5 million people voted for him) compared to the 25% garnered by his rival: also a pro-European Petro Poroshenko.
Zelensky should have faced the polls again in May of last year. However, the Russian invasion in February 2022 forced the implementation of martial law and, with it, the suspension of elections until the end of the war.
What Trump implied during his interview with Politico is that Zelensky is using the race to stay in power. “The issue of elections in Ukraine depends, above all, on our people,” the Ukrainian president added in his reply. An allusion to what the most recent polls show: that the majority of Ukrainians oppose holding elections while the war lasts.
“Frankly, saying that the war is not ending because I want to continue clinging to the presidency is a completely unreasonable idea,” Zelensky said.
That said, the Ukrainian president reiterated that if the United States and Ukraine’s European allies guarantee the necessary conditions for there to be polls, he himself will call those polls. Now: what are those conditions?
In the opinion of Volodymyr Fesenkoa well-known Ukrainian political scientist, the first thing that has to happen for elections to be held is an aerial ceasefire. It has its logic: going to a polling station while Russian drones and missiles rain down on the country’s cities and towns carries a few risks.
Fesenko has also pointed out the need to create a legislative framework for the occasion, since the country’s Constitution does not contemplate an electoral call within martial law.
And a census should be updated that takes into account not only the more than four million internally displaced people left by the war but also the almost six million Ukrainians who are refugees abroad. Which, obviously, should be able to vote in the case of a general election.
Not to mention the tens of thousands of soldiers fighting on the front. What would have to be done so that they could deposit the ballot in the ballot box?
At this point, there are those who wonder why Trump is once again insisting on holding general elections in Ukraine when, regardless of what is happening on the front, Russian attacks against the civilian population continue to be a constant.
There are two predominant theories (and not necessarily exclusive). The first points to complaints from Moscow, where Zelensky has been considered an “illegitimate” president since last year and, therefore, someone who cannot be negotiated with.
The second theory points to the resistance that Zelensky himself is putting – supported by the majority of Ukrainians – to parts of the peace agreement principle coined by the Russians and the Americans several weeks ago. A principle of agreement that squeaks in kyiv because it demands territorial cessions – the part of Donbas that Ukraine still controls – and calls for limiting the extension of the Ukrainian armed forces. Among other things.
In short: Trump seems to believe that, in the event of an election, Zelensky will lose the popular vote and a new president will facilitate the agreement he has been seeking for a year (when he promised to end the war in Ukraine “in less than 24 hours”).
However, the kyiv International Institute of Sociology says that it is not at all clear that Zelensky will lose support at the polls.
It is true that his popularity has fallen substantially since the Russian invasion – then it was close to 90% – due to the corruption scandals that have plagued his close circle in recent months, but it is still slightly above 50%.
On the other hand, the figure who surpasses him in popular support is none other than Lieutenant General Valeri Zaluzhnyi. The one who was commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces until last year and who now serves as ambassador in London. Someone who, according to many Ukrainians, has no sympathy for Russians.