The La Niña phenomenon, associated with lower global temperatures, could occur between December and February, but many regions are still expected to record high temperatures, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
According to the latest update from the United Nations (UN) agency, “there is a 55% chance that an event like La Niña will influence climate and meteorological patterns over the next three months.”
But, although La Niña will have a cooling effect, “many regions are still expected to record above-average temperatures”, said the WMO, basing its assessment on the most recent observations from its global seasonal forecast centers, referring to mid-November.
According to the WMO, temperatures will be above normal in much of the Northern Hemisphere and in large areas of the Southern Hemisphere between December 2025 and February 2026.
However, the WMO specifies that, for the periods from January to March and from February to April 2026, the probability of returning to neutral conditions “gradually increases from 65% to 75%”.
The La Niña phenomenon is associated with the periodic and large-scale cooling of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, related to variations in tropical atmospheric circulation, including changes in winds, pressure and precipitation patterns, according to the WMO.
Generally, La Niña produces climate effects opposite to those of El Niño, particularly in tropical regions. The risk of an El Niño event in the coming months is considered “low” by the WMO.
“The National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (SMHN) will closely monitor the situation in the coming months,” the organization added.
Large-scale natural climate phenomena such as La Niña and El Niño are, according to the WMO, part of the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is leading to long-term increases in global temperatures, more frequent and intense weather and climate events, and disruptions in seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.