The President of the Government maintains that he will be able to finance the military resources committed to NATO limiting itself to spending 2.1% of GDP. But the Secretary General of the Alliance refutes him: that level is not enough, and Spain will have to reach 5%, like the rest of the allies.
Sánchez’s refusal to comply with the 5% has unleashed the fury of the president of the United States, Donald Trumpwhich threatened to expel Spain from NATO or impose individual tariffs on it. The European allies have also reproached the President of the Government for an attitude that they consider unsupportive.
The key now, as Rutte says, is to know who is right: if the Sánchez Government is capable of fulfilling the assigned defense capabilities – which it claims to accept “100%” – with the 2.1%, or if it will have to surrender to the evidence and take the path towards 5%as the head of the Alliance maintains.
The first exam will occur much earlier than planned: during the first half of 2026. Between January and June of that year, NATO will carry out a double evaluation to verify whether Spain is fulfilling its military commitments, according to diplomatic sources.
On the one hand, NATO technicians will monitor whether Spain—and the rest of its partners—is making good progress in the acquisition of air defense systems, planes, tanks, ships or drones. In addition, there will be a second review by the allies (peer review), who, let us remember, have been extremely critical of Sánchez.
In any case, this is a preliminary evaluation, since military resources should not be acquired all at once, but in a phased manner, and the first year of the period will only have been completed.
It is, furthermore, an internal procedure that is a priori secret, although it is not ruled out that there are leaks, given that the attitude of the President of the Government has caused discomfort in the rest of the partners. Spain is the only one of the 23 NATO countries that has publicly announced that it will fail to comply with the 5%.
In fact, the Sánchez Government remains in its thirteenth and maintains that this first examination will demonstrate that Spain is complying with the commitments made to NATO in defense matters.
In fact, the Executive maintains that it is other countries, such as France or Italy, that will have the most difficulties in achieving the agreed goals due to their low economic growth, combined with high levels of deficit and debt.
The most formal and public review of Member States’ progress in defense spending is planned for 2029, taking into account the strategic environment and an update of the capacity objectivesas agreed in The Hague.
The increase in defense spending is one of the main points on the agenda of the meeting of NATO foreign ministers taking place this Wednesday in Brussels, the last of the year.
“We will examine the evolving challenges and threats to our security, including from Russia, and how we are advancing the crucial decisions leaders made in The Hague. The allies agreed to invest 5% of GDP in defense, including 3.5% in strict military spending“Rutte said at a press conference.
“That commitment to invest more in our security was a great leap, which recognized our changing reality. And since then, we have made significant progress. Every week I see new announcements from allies working to strengthen their capabilities,” says the Secretary General of the Alliance.
“But this is just the beginning of a long road, and we cannot be complacent. We must build momentum and hold each other accountable, as we work to keep our 1 billion citizens safe,” Rutte concluded.
NATO foreign ministers will also debate how to maintain military support for Ukraine in the midst of negotiations between Washington and Moscow on a possible peace plan. In an unusual gesture, the Secretary of State, Marco Rubiodoes not plan to attend the meeting.
The Secretary General of the Alliance has downplayed this absence of Rubio and has once again applauded the efforts of the Trump administration, although he has also made it clear that any aspect of the peace plan that affects NATO must be addressed within NATO itself.
“It is really important that the United States leads these efforts and ensures that we do everything possible to end this terrible war,” Rutte said.