A few weeks ago, at a conference at the Porto Commercial Association, António Ramalho made a critical reflection on the current situation of the Portuguese Social State and the imperative need for it to be reformed. The manager’s premise is that the model has been successful so far, but the sociodemographic basis on which it was based has simply ceased to exist.
The data is unequivocal. Portugal has been facing a structural birth crisis for decades, it is one of the oldest countries in the world and, according to the 2021 Census, the elderly dependency rate increased by around 30% in just one decade. Discounting the immigration oxygen balloon, we are experiencing a persistent demographic winter and condemning, in the long term, our pension system to collapse.
But the former president of Novo Banco went deeper into the presentation, assuming that there is a growing “generational trap” in our country: young people and future taxpayers are being harmed by the system, losing jobs, well-being and quality of life, in the name of acquired rights. This can be seen, clearly, in the high rate of youth unemployment that exists in Portugal or in the difficulty in accessing housing. The most immediate consequence is that we continue to lose the best talents, who easily find living conditions abroad that they cannot obtain inside.
Solutions to reverse this trajectory exist, have been tested in other countries, but are slow to be applied to the Portuguese reality. We remain addicted to immobility and any hint of reform is quickly chased away, based on cynical ideological criteria that only serve to maintain the current state of things. Take a look at the discussion around the new labor package: there are measures, such as extending the minimum duration of fixed-term contracts, the extension of parental leave or the new rules for outsourcing services, which objectively favor young workers. However, there is no shortage of people in the public debate raising the issue of precariousness and regression in labor rights.
Are we doomed to live in this state of lethargy? Maybe not, if the most affected population reacts. If this does not happen, reality will determine the rules and impose itself on political decision-makers.