Despite the enormous diplomatic turmoil that has occurred in recent days, we remain a long way from peace in Ukraine. The plan drawn up by the Russians and signed by Donald Trump, thus giving the impression that it was a White House initiative, collapsed after two or three days. The positions of Zelensky and his European allies emptied him. They said in unison, without ambiguity, that it was an unacceptable Diktat, a kind of ultimatum coming from Moscow. And it was clear that Trump’s envoy, real estate developer Steve Witkoff, knows as much about geopolitics as Cristiano Ronaldo or is a candidate for Guinness as the most brazen Russian agent in recent US history.
A rare thing, European firmness proved to be exemplary. Zelensky’s was what would be expected, although the initial announcement of the Russian-American proposal was a huge punch in the gut to the Ukrainian leader. Anyone who saw Zelensky’s images at that moment could see that they were deeply shocked. But he didn’t lose his balance, which was what the Kremlin wanted. He responded diplomatically and three days later there was another plan, drawn up in Geneva, together with European delegations and Marco Rubio’s team. The latter scored points, inside Trump’s circle. Will you be able to maintain this ascendancy? It won’t be easy, but it’s not impossible. For many in the MAGA movement, Rubio is a silent rival to Trump and, especially in the future, to the vice president, JD Vance.
It is clear that the American ruling group is becoming fractured. And not just because of differences in the treatment of relations with Russia, but also for internal reasons: the Epstein case, the cost of living, the persecution of immigrants, the favors given to the most eccentric billionaires, etc. In the case of Russia, I believe it is relevant to remember that North American military doctrine has been based, over decades, on the categorization of that country as a State that constitutes a serious threat to the USA. Thus, many high-ranking US military officials look with great surprise at the relationship that Trump has established with Putin. Here there is a cat hiding with its tail out. Many will think that this relationship has more to do with blackmail to man coming from Moscow, than with a new type of diplomacy.
Meanwhile, diplomacy related to the brutal aggression against Ukraine continued its course in Abu Dhabi. We now have a new, more appropriate project. It is fundamentally inspired by Ukrainian realism and has the support of the European side. It will certainly not be accepted by Vladimir Putin, but it puts him on the defensive compared to his American counterpart. Trump wants the end of the war at any cost – in reality it is not a war, but rather a barbaric aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine – as long as this adds an argument to his candidacy for the Nobel Peace Prize. That is his ambition, his ego above all else.
We are, however, at a risky stage for Ukraine’s sovereignty and Europe’s security. Putin believes in two fundamental illusions: that he will tear Ukraine apart and that he will be able to open a gap and remove the US from defending Europe. In other words, North American support for NATO has its days numbered. NATO will be, at most, in Putin’s view, a merely symbolic coalition, which will only last as long as Europeans have the financial means to buy weapons and other American goods and services.
Peace is built on the basis of mutual trust. Without trust, we will at most experience a temporary pause in hostilities. The foundations of this trust towards the Trump administration were seriously shaken with Washington’s endorsement of the incredible Russian plan. It is essential to rebuild trust between Europeans and Americans.
In relation to Putin’s Russia, there is no room for any kind of trust. Putin dreams of a vassal Europe, trapped in the fold of his geopolitical sphere of influence. It needs this influence due to czarist-inspired narcissism, for economic reasons and for strategic reasons: this way it can claim to belong to the big club, alongside China and the USA. That’s why he wants to dismember the Atlantic Alliance and make the European Union implode.
Trust is based on shared values. In my opinion, the most important are those contained in the United Nations Charter.
The great powers do not respect, in current times, the basic principles of the Charter: the dignity of people, human rights, tolerance, independence and sovereignty of each State, large or small, and solidarity between peoples. Democratic Europe, in turn, seeks to maintain this framework of values. Only a minority of movements and political parties here show contempt for these red lines. Most recognize the importance of democracy and respect for international law. Therefore, he sees Putin as a very serious threat. That’s why it’s committed to defending our part of the continent, starting with the defense of Ukraine and the symmetry of forces, which is something different from peace, but serves peace. And he now understands that the relationship with America that Trump represents is dangerously unstable. It must be rebalanced urgently.
International security advisor. Former UN Deputy Secretary-General