The ICS/ISCTE survey for the Express and the SIC, released this Thursday, November 27th, offers relevant clues about the upcoming presidential elections. The results place Gouveia e Melo and André Ventura as the strongest candidates to compete in a possible second round. As the Aximage Barometer for DN already indicated, the admiral leads in voting intentions in all scenarios, emerging as the favorite for final victory.
The numbers are clear: in a second round, Gouveia e Melo would beat Ventura by 49% against 23%. Against Marques Mendes, the advantage would be 35% against 31%. And against António José Seguro, the result would be 41% against 24%. On the other hand, any opponent of Ventura seems to gather more support than Chega’s leader: Mendes would win by 47% against 24%, while Seguro would have 42% against 25%.
These data, for what they are worth, allow us to draw three main conclusions. The first is that the favorites for the second round are two outsiders: Ventura, the anti-system candidate, and Gouveia e Melo, the candidate who has never been a politician. The second is that Ventura, despite an impressive result, faces an almost insurmountable barrier: there are more voters against him than in favor, which makes his election highly unlikely. His candidacy seems to serve mainly to mark territory and prepare the ground for future legislative elections. The third conclusion follows from the previous one: any candidate who faces Ventura in the second round will, most likely, have an open path to the Presidency.
Marques Mendes and António José Seguro compete for the same political space, which ranges from the moderate left to the center-right. For both, the challenge is to win over the electorate that is currently divided between them and Gouveia e Melo. Whoever manages to overcome the admiral and reach the second round will face Ventura with the additional benefit of a “useful vote” against Chega’s leader. In the case of Mendes, the numbers show that, even against Gouveia and Melo, he could have a real chance of victory, if he managed to reach the decisive stage.
However, it is important not to forget that surveys are just opinion studies. They indicate trends, but they do not decide elections. The moment of truth will be on January 18th, when the Portuguese go to the polls. Until then, the debates will play a decisive role: candidates such as Seguro, Cotrim de Figueiredo and Catarina Martins could gain ground, while Gouveia e Melo, less experienced in these arenas, could face greater damage in terms of image.
Ultimately, these presidential elections seem to be heading towards a choice between the center and contestation. If the numbers are confirmed, the next President of the Republic will be the one who manages to unite the moderate electorate against Ventura. But only the debates and the campaign will tell if Gouveia and Melo will maintain their lead or if Mendes and Seguro will be able to transform polls into votes. What is certain is that, more than ever, the result will depend on the ability to conquer the political center – and to mobilize useful votes in the name of stability.
Director of News Diary