Trump exonerates Bin Salman of Khashoggi’s murder and fails in his goal for Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel

Netanyahu went so far that, against all his principles, he ordered a temporary cessation of settlement policy in the West Bank and pledged to accept a Palestinian state “disarmed and that recognizes Israel.”

The key piece of that gear was Saudi Arabia. If this normalization was achieved with the kingdom of Abdulá bin Abdulazizthe rest of the pieces would fit together one after another. Obama even traveled to Riyadh in person to offer the agreement, but Abdulaziz did not show any interest in it.

However, the years passed and two events changed everything: first, Iran’s expansionist policy and the development of a nuclear program that at any moment could take on weapons overtones. Apart from this, the death of Abdullah in 2015, the accession of his brother to the throne Salman bin Abdulaziz and, above all, the proclamation in 2017 of Mohamed bin Salmanson of the king, as crown prince and, later, in 2022, de facto ruler of the country with the appointment of prime minister, normally exclusive to kings.

The arrival of MBS to the international sphere, at 32 years old, was a breath of fresh air for Saudi foreign policy. MBS belonged to a generation that had not experienced first-hand the major conflicts with Israel and the United States and the Palestinian problem was not the focus of its agenda.

Instead, it sought to westernize the kingdom, get closer to Washington and thus fight against its greatest enemy in the area, Iran, responsible in September 2019 for a drone attack on Saudi oil facilities.

Khashoggi’s murder

It is no coincidence that one of MBS’s first visits was to the White House, in March 2018, a few months before the journalist’s murder. Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The idea of ​​recognition of the State of Israel was still in the air, while that of the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain was simmering, which would be signed, in the so-called Abraham Accords, at the beginning of 2020.

Now, Khashoggi’s murder changed everything. Although Trump has always exonerated MBS for the dismemberment of the collaborator of The Washington Postthe then Democratic candidate, Joe Bidenpledged to turn Saudi Arabia into “a political pariah” within the international sphere. Biden’s victory in the 2020 elections momentarily ended the rapprochement between both countries, at least publicly.

Because the fact is that, in private, relations remained magnificent. Biden was quick to forgive MBS and everything was almost closed for “normalization” when Iran encouraged Hamas to commit one of the most horrifying attacks in its history. The subsequent Israeli reaction, with the constant bombing of the civilian population, made it impossible for MBS to dare approach Netanyahu.

It must be insisted that the Palestinian question is not an essential issue for the crown prince as it is for his father or as it was for his grandfather, the king. Fahd. Now, for the Saudi population it continues to be a very polarizing issue and, although we are talking about a dictatorial monarchy without checks and balances, it is not in their best interest to openly confront public opinion.

A turn in foreign policy?

Trump’s return has in turn meant the return of privileged relations between Saudi and the United States. The American president’s first official trip in his second term was to Riyadh, where he was received with all kinds of honors.

For his part, MBS’s first official trip to the United States since Khashoggi’s murder did not arrive until the Republican had returned to power. The friendship between the two leaders goes beyond specific interest… and that is something that is viewed with a certain concern in Israel.

Since its creation in 1948, Israel has had the support of the different American administrations in a privileged relationship that was strengthened with the support of the Soviet Union to the Arab powers during the Cold War. However, that may be changing. Donald Trump He feels much more comfortable in the company of the Arabs than in that of Netanyahu, with whom he has had a personal dispute since his first term.

Proof of this is the fact that the United States is considering selling dozens of F-35 fighters with the most recent cutting-edge technology to Saudi Arabia without first consulting Tel Aviv. It is an unprecedented event in recent decades. Israel has always had a kind of veto over what weapons could be sold to Arab countries with which it has no diplomatic relations.

It was nothing that was recorded in any paper, but it was a custom that strengthened the Hebrew State against its neighbors.

Netanyahu and the two states

In recent weeks there has been speculation that said sale and the signing of a mutual defense agreement, similar to the one signed with Qatar after the Israeli attacks on Doha, would lead to some type of diplomatic gesture towards Israel. Trump knows that, if he gets the support of MBS in this negotiation, his long-awaited Nobel Peace Prize would be closer and the pacification of the Middle East would be almost a reality, with the aforementioned exception of a tremendously weakened Iran after these two years of continuous military setbacks in Syria, Iraq and its own territory.

Trump interpreted MBS’s reaction as “positive” after once again offering him entry into the Abraham Accords. MBS lowered spirits. “First,” he replied, “we must ensure that there is a clear path to two states.”

The recent approval of Trump’s peace plan for Gaza at the United Nations represents a path towards the two-state solution, as demanded by the Arab League. However, Netanyahu’s steps are going in the opposite direction. Although Israel adhered to the signing of the peace treaty with Hamas in Egypt, neither its prime minister nor the majority of society view coexistence with an Arab State favorably for fear of not being able to control its terrorist groups.

MBS demands a gesture in that sense. Something similar to what Netanyahu was willing to offer in 2009 and that has faded over time. Today, not only is the Gaza Strip in ruins, but paramilitary bands of settlers are rampant in the West Bank with the support of ministers. Itamar Ben True y Bezalel Smotrich.