The first trilateral summit between Russians, Ukrainians and Americans since the return of Donald Trump to the White House, held this Friday in Abu Dhabi, served to confirm that Vladimir Putin does not renounce its maximalist demands to end the war. The Russian president covets the Donbas. He emphasizes applying the “Anchorage formula,” a framework he agreed to with Trump during his August visit last year to Alaska and which, broadly speaking, consists of exchanging peace for territory.
In the meeting held last night in the Kremlin, which ended well into the early hours of the morning, Putin transferred Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoffand to the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushnerthat “it is not worth waiting for a long-term agreement without resolving the territorial question”, according to his foreign policy advisor, Yuri Ushakov. The wish of the Russian president implies that the Ukrainian forces abandon their positions in the Donetsk region, as his spokesman stressed this Friday, Dmitri Peskov.
The Ukrainian president, Volodímir Zelenskirecognizes, like Peskov himself, that “the question of Donbas is key” to sealing an agreement, but draws a red line. It will not withdraw troops unless it receives strong security guarantees from the Kremlin. According to the Russian news agency TASS, the parties meeting this Friday in Abu Dhabi discussed the idea of establishing buffer zones.
The first contact was “productive”, according to the digital The Kyiv Independent. From the outset, as he confessed to the network NBC News a White House source, “no one is slamming doors.” It is an advance. But there is nothing to suggest that they can reach a compromise in the next few hours, even though Ukraine is going through a critical situation as a result of the Russian attacks against its electrical grid.
The CEO of the Ukrainian company DTEK, Maksym Timchenkohe acknowledged in statements to the agency Reuters that kyiv needs an immediate ceasefire against energy infrastructure to avoid a “humanitarian catastrophe.”
He doesn’t have it all, but Trump prefers to be optimistic. “There were times when Putin didn’t want to make an agreement. Times when Zelensky didn’t want to make an agreement. And they were like opposite moments. Now I think they both want to make an agreement. We’ll find out,” he said this Friday aboard Air Force One.
The US mediation aims to convince Russia to cease its attacks on energy infrastructure in Ukraine in exchange for kyiv not carrying out further offensives against Russian refineries and oil tankers from its “ghost fleet”, always according to the Financial Times.
Zelensky has sent politicians, diplomats, spies and soldiers to the Abu Dhabi negotiations, with the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Rustem Umerovat the head. Putin only sent soldiers. The person in charge of leading the Russian delegation is Igor Kostyukovthe head of military intelligence, the feared GRU, sanctioned by the United States since 2016.
Kostyukov cut his teeth in the Syrian civil war and was implicated in the poisoning of the double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter. His election represents progress. In previous negotiations, the head of the Kremlin delegation had been Vladimir MedinskyPutin’s advisor and president of the Russian Writers’ Union.
The mere fact of sitting at the same table as the Russians a year later means for Zelensky “a step forward” in the long journey to bring peace to Ukraine. “We speak your language and [podemos] read their facial expressions,” commented a Ukrainian official when Financial Times.
It is not the first time that Russians and Ukrainians have negotiated face to face, however. The parties held a round of negotiations just a year ago, which ended without significant progress. Now, for the first time, the United States replaces Turkey in mediation efforts, and Witkoff Hakan Fidanthe president’s foreign minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
According to the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri Peskovthe transfer of territories is “a very important condition”, but not the only one on Abu Dhabi’s table. In parallel, Russia seeks to revive its economic and commercial relations with the United States. In the Emirati capital, a city open to business, the head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitrievwill have the opportunity to convince Witkoff and Kushner.